COL beat DAL 5–3. COL lost the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Gabriel Landeskog scored at 4:04 of the second, moving COL’s win probability from 53% to 72%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:03 | DAL | Jamie Benn from John Klingberg, Tyler Seguin | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 13:45 | COL | Matt Nieto from Gabriel Landeskog | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 2:14 | COL | Matt Nieto from Carl Soderberg, Blake Comeau | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 2:44 | DAL | Brett Ritchie from Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:04 | COL | Gabriel Landeskog from Matt Duchene | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 19:50 | COL | Mark Barberio from Tyson Barrie, Blake Comeau | 2–4 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 10:12 | DAL | John Klingberg from Jamie Benn | 3–4 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 19:56 | COL | Matt NietoEN from Blake Comeau, Carl Soderberg | 3–5 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Klingberg D | 29:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.24 | +0.57 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jamie Benn L | 20:39 | 1 | 2 | +0.60 | +0.26 | +0.42 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.04 |
| Brett Ritchie R | 16:05 | 1 | +0.42 | +0.25 | +0.35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Methot D | 24:01 | +0.20 | +0.21 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Johns D | 5:32 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 21:09 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.29 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Antoine Roussel L | 12:26 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Pitlick C | 9:00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 26:15 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Remi Elie L | 7:15 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Hamhuis D | 18:38 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julius Honka D | 13:42 | −0.16 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Hanzal C | 13:01 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 11:33 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 11:11 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Janmark C | 17:50 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 19:11 | −0.46 | −0.01 | −0.31 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 17:51 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Kari Lehtonen G | 33:23 | −0.03 |
| Ben Bishop G | 26:12 | −0.94 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Nieto L | 15:06 | 3 | +1.52 | +0.12 | +1.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Barberio D | 17:08 | 1 | +1.16 | +0.16 | +0.82 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 16:41 | 1 | 1 | +0.36 | −0.08 | +0.43 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Carl Soderberg C | 17:35 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.15 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Bigras D | 16:51 | +0.11 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 16:43 | 3 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anton Lindholm D | 17:33 | −0.06 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| A.J. Greer L | 8:22 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Bourque L | 10:18 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nail Yakupov R | 13:15 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Kerfoot C | 14:04 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 21:13 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Andrighetto R | 14:28 | −0.27 | −0.21 | −0.24 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 27:41 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 16:08 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 15:53 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.04 | −0.20 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.06 | |
| Mikko Rantanen R | 16:33 | −0.32 | −0.18 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:47 | −0.33 | −0.20 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:41 | +0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.