NYI beat ARI 5–3. NYI lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: John Tavares scored at 12:41 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 51% to 86%. Louis Domingue allowed 2.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:47 | ARI | Anthony DuclairPP from Clayton Keller, Derek Stepan | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 3:41 |  NYI | John Tavares from Jordan Eberle | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 14:25 | NYI | John Tavares from Adam Pelech, Jordan Eberle | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 1:32 | ARI | Mario Kempe from Tobias Rieder, Christian Dvorak | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:21 | NYI | Brock NelsonPP from Adam Pelech, Josh Bailey | 2–3 | 53% → 79% |
| P3 8:57 | ARI | Nick Cousins from Clayton Keller, Adam Clendening | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 12:41 | NYI | John Tavares from Adam Pelech, Calvin de Haan | 3–4 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 17:03 | NYI | Scott Mayfield from John Tavares, Anders Lee | 3–5 | 92% → 99% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Kempe R | 16:28 | 1 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.82 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Nick Cousins C | 12:17 | 1 | +0.71 | −0.08 | +0.80 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 14:11 | 1 | +0.63 | +0.18 | +0.44 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zac Rinaldo C | 7:23 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 18:50 | 1 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 20:22 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Clendening D | 13:08 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 12:24 | −0.04 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 12:50 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 18:52 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:55 | −0.09 | +0.21 | −0.34 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 18:49 | −0.10 | +0.19 | −0.36 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 10:08 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 24:02 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:46 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 17:24 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 20:54 | −0.42 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 18:15 | 2 | −0.49 | +0.19 | −0.70 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 60:00 | −2.56 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Tavares C | 16:53 | 3 | 1 | +2.72 | +0.05 | +2.44 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.06 |
| Brock Nelson C | 15:05 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.04 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Mayfield D | 18:27 | 1 | +0.49 | −0.09 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 18:04 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 23:19 | +0.10 | +0.02 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 14:45 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 16:50 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 11:37 | −0.02 | +0.09 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 13:33 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 11:52 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:09 | 2 | −0.13 | +0.04 | −0.37 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 20:25 | 3 | −0.14 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 23:57 | −0.21 | −0.17 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 15:38 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 15:02 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Mathew Barzal C | 14:45 | −0.29 | +0.08 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:08 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 15:05 | −0.43 | −0.18 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jaroslav Halak G | 59:58 | −0.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.