NYI beat SJS 5–3. Expected goals were close to even (SJS 2.1, NYI 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Andrew Ladd scored at 3:12 of the third, moving NYI’s win probability from 52% to 79%. Aaron Dell allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | SJS–NYI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:26 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Brent Burns, Joe Thornton | 1–0 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 7:33 | NYI | Anders Lee from Nick Leddy, John Tavares | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 8:31 | NYI | Josh Bailey unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P2 12:44 | SJS | Logan Couture from Jannik Hansen, Brenden Dillon | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 3:12 | NYI | Andrew Ladd from Mathew Barzal, Josh Bailey | 2–3 | 52% → 79% |
| P3 11:47 | NYI | Anders Lee from John Tavares, Cal Clutterbuck | 2–4 | 85% → 97% |
| P3 18:08 | SJS | Logan CouturePP from Kevin Labanc, Brent Burns | 3–4 | 0% → 6% |
| P3 19:04 | NYI | John TavaresEN from Anders Lee, Calvin de Haan | 3–5 | 95% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Couture C | 18:22 | 3 | +2.35 | +0.01 | +2.33 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tim Heed D | 18:45 | +0.06 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:26 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:39 | +0.05 | −0.06 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Thornton C | 19:53 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 12:06 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jannik Hansen R | 13:25 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Timo Meier R | 14:26 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 17:35 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Carpenter C | 11:04 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 11:30 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 11:28 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 17:41 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.15 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Ryan D | 18:51 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 21:37 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 11:51 | −0.28 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Burns D | 24:33 | 2 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.25 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:55 | −0.42 | −0.04 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 58:53 | −1.90 |
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anders Lee C | 19:02 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | −0.03 | +1.54 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrew Ladd L | 15:08 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.13 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Bailey R | 17:51 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | −0.01 | +0.65 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Thomas Hickey D | 17:29 | +0.28 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Seidenberg D | 14:12 | +0.12 | +0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 13:31 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ryan Pulock D | 9:23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 20:22 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Johnny Boychuk D | 18:36 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Leddy D | 18:15 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Casey Cizikas C | 12:29 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 12:52 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 14:34 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 18:00 | −0.09 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| John Tavares C | 20:10 | 1 | 2 | −0.10 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Mathew Barzal C | 15:29 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Adam Pelech D | 19:41 | −0.20 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 16:29 | −0.33 | −0.02 | −0.32 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 60:00 | −0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.