CBJ beat MIN 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (CBJ 2.1, MIN 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alexander Wennberg scored at 0:47 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:50 | MIN | Eric Staal from Chris Stewart, Mathew Dumba | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 16:25 | CBJ | Zach Werenski from Alexander Wennberg, Artemi Panarin | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 2:58 | MIN | Tyler EnnisPP from Jared Spurgeon, Ryan Suter | 1–2 | 54% → 72% |
| P2 5:07 | MIN | Landon Ferraro from Zack Mitchell | 1–3 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 7:42 | CBJ | David Savard from Oliver Bjorkstrand, Nick Foligno | 2–3 | 12% → 27% |
| P3 1:42 | MIN | Tyler EnnisPP from Mikko Koivu, Ryan Suter | 2–4 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 2:39 | CBJ | Cam Atkinson from Jack Johnson, Artemi Panarin | 3–4 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 16:23 | CBJ | Josh Anderson from David Savard, Matt Calvert | 4–4 | 9% → 49% |
| OT 0:47 | CBJ | Alexander Wennberg from Artemi Panarin, Seth Jones | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Wennberg C | 23:01 | 1 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.30 | +0.70 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | −0.13 |
| Zach Werenski D | 22:38 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.72 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Savard D | 18:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.01 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Anderson R | 17:36 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.08 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Atkinson R | 21:29 | 1 | +0.31 | +0.06 | +0.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Artemi Panarin L | 24:13 | 3 | +0.26 | +0.29 | −0.31 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Jones D | 25:46 | 1 | +0.15 | +0.17 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Sedlak C | 9:00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Oliver Bjorkstrand R | 9:33 | 1 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jack Johnson D | 18:21 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Pierre-Luc Dubois C | 11:40 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sonny Milano L | 11:36 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 17:58 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Calvert L | 17:06 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 17:56 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Scott Harrington D | 11:07 | −0.26 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Zac Dalpe C | 5:37 | −0.33 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 16:38 | −0.43 | −0.15 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Sergei Bobrovsky G | 60:13 | −2.18 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ennis R | 17:14 | 2 | +1.52 | −0.02 | +1.53 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Landon Ferraro C | 5:20 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.02 | +0.65 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Eric Staal C | 18:15 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.20 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.12 | |
| Luke Kunin C | 13:53 | +0.19 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Joel Eriksson Ek C | 16:18 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.15 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Quincey D | 15:49 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 18:19 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 17:58 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 23:16 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Stewart R | 15:31 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Gustav Olofsson D | 11:15 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Zucker L | 22:29 | −0.07 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathew Dumba D | 18:08 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Mitchell R | 4:46 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 25:04 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Suter D | 27:29 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.22 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 20:36 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Christoph Bertschy C | 5:23 | −0.40 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 60:05 | −2.54 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.