DET beat ARI 4–2. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Luke Glendening scored short-handed at 16:36 of the third, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 89%. Louis Domingue allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 6:12 | ARI | Clayton KellerPP from Derek Stepan, Max Domi | 0–1 | 54% → 73% |
| P2 11:37 | DET | Martin FrkPP from Mike Green | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 18:16 | ARI | Clayton Keller from Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 1–2 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 19:18 | DET | Henrik Zetterberg from Dylan Larkin, Mike Green | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 16:36 | DET | Luke GlendeningSH from Dylan Larkin, Jimmy Howard | 3–2 | 48% → 89% |
| P3 18:26 | DET | Frans NielsenEN from Darren Helm, Jonathan Ericsson | 4–2 | 93% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Glendening C | 12:34 | 1 | +1.06 | +0.08 | +0.84 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Martin Frk R | 11:35 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.07 | +0.81 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.31 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.54 | +0.04 | +0.66 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.18 | −0.02 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 25:09 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Booth L | 4:23 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 19:05 | −0.04 | +0.09 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:52 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Kronwall D | 17:27 | −0.14 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 13:50 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Xavier Ouellet D | 16:39 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 7:21 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Tomas Tatar L | 18:27 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Anthony Mantha R | 13:45 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Green D | 22:16 | 2 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dylan Larkin C | 18:53 | 2 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | |
| Darren Helm C | 15:18 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Frans Nielsen C | 14:52 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.09 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.10 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Howard G | 60:00 | +0.68 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clayton Keller R | 20:34 | 2 | +1.23 | −0.08 | +1.29 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 21:33 | +0.35 | +0.17 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 23:37 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:07 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mario Kempe R | 8:59 | +0.05 | +0.13 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Clendening D | 15:51 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 14:25 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 13:12 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 9:40 | −0.02 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 15:23 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Christian Fischer R | 14:12 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 11:04 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 19:48 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.11 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 20:01 | 2 | −0.26 | −0.11 | −0.23 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 21:30 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.34 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:09 | −0.37 | −0.12 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:57 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.11 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Anthony Duclair L | 12:01 | −0.62 | +0.10 | −0.72 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 20:00 | +0.64 |
| Louis Domingue G | 39:08 | −1.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.