CGY beat WPG 6–3. CGY also won the expected-goals battle 4.3 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Johnny Gaudreau scored on the power play at 17:02 of the second, moving CGY’s win probability from 53% to 76%. Steve Mason allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CGY | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:35 | WPG | Brandon TanevSH unassisted | 1–0 | 46% → 63% |
| P1 10:08 | CGY | TJ BrodiePP from Johnny Gaudreau, Kris Versteeg | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:12 | WPG | Mark ScheifelePP from Blake Wheeler, Mathieu Perreault | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 15:54 | WPG | Patrik Laine from Mathieu Perreault, Josh Morrissey | 3–1 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 8:42 | CGY | TJ Brodie from Michael Stone, Johnny Gaudreau | 3–2 | 16% → 32% |
| P2 12:42 | CGY | Micheal FerlandPP from Mark Giordano, Johnny Gaudreau | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 17:02 | CGY | Johnny GaudreauPP from TJ Brodie, Curtis Lazar | 3–4 | 53% → 76% |
| P2 18:38 | CGY | Kris Versteeg from Sean Monahan, TJ Brodie | 3–5 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 0:16 | CGY | Mikael Backlund from Dougie Hamilton, Matthew Tkachuk | 3–6 | 92% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:19 | 1 | +0.94 | +0.04 | +0.67 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 15:16 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 9:27 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.23 | +0.77 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 15:37 | 2 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 17:21 | +0.07 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Nic Petan C | 10:08 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 25:02 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 15:56 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.10 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 8:12 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 14:05 | −0.18 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 20:44 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 18:24 | −0.24 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:37 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.04 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Little C | 15:35 | −0.30 | −0.06 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 21:22 | −0.30 | −0.13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 11:23 | −0.42 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 17:33 | −0.43 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Matthias L | 15:03 | −0.44 | −0.05 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Steve Mason G | 60:00 | −1.51 |
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Brodie D | 25:49 | 2 | 2 | +1.83 | +0.18 | +1.66 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:47 | 1 | 3 | +1.15 | +0.17 | +0.70 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 |
| Kris Versteeg R | 16:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.16 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 16:04 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:31 | 1 | +0.34 | +0.02 | +0.35 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Micheal Ferland L | 16:13 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.10 | +0.22 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Frolik R | 17:26 | +0.19 | +0.04 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.02 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 14:26 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Bennett C | 15:37 | −0.00 | +0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 12:13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.16 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Matt Bartkowski D | 12:19 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 17:06 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 11:24 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tanner Glass L | 10:09 | −0.28 | −0.00 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Curtis Lazar C | 11:07 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.12 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dougie Hamilton D | 21:33 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sean Monahan C | 17:21 | 1 | −0.39 | +0.13 | −0.50 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mark Giordano D | 22:32 | 1 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 59:58 | −0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.