VGK beat ARI 2–1 in overtime. VGK also won the expected-goals battle 4.8 to 3.7: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: James Neal scored at 3:46 of overtime, moving VGK’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury saved 2.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | VGK–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:52 | ARI | Tobias Rieder from Jordan Martinook, Luke Schenn | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P3 18:48 | VGK | Nate SchmidtPP unassisted | 1–1 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 3:46 | VGK | James Neal from David Perron, Nate Schmidt | 2–1 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
VGK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nate Schmidt D | 25:18 | 1 | 1 | +1.07 | +0.47 | +0.56 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| James Neal L | 17:01 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.31 | +0.49 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Eakin C | 22:05 | +0.24 | +0.33 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Tomas Nosek L | 8:18 | +0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.01 | ||
| David Perron L | 19:04 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.56 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Colin Miller D | 15:40 | +0.05 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 16:31 | +0.03 | +0.21 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 8:32 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Garrison D | 19:57 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 13:02 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| William Karlsson C | 18:36 | −0.07 | +0.45 | −0.48 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 10:56 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Brendan Leipsic L | 16:15 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 21:06 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 19:00 | −0.21 | +0.27 | −0.49 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Reilly Smith R | 18:53 | −0.34 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.01 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 18:38 | −0.39 | +0.04 | −0.46 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 17:32 | −0.40 | +0.04 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:40 | +2.45 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Rieder L | 11:45 | 1 | +0.44 | −0.14 | +0.59 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 11:04 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Connauton D | 12:11 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 11:12 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 12:57 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 12:18 | 1 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 21:25 | −0.21 | −0.12 | −0.15 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 24:26 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 13:09 | −0.26 | +0.16 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.18 | −0.02 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 23:57 | −0.27 | −0.17 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Clayton Keller R | 22:36 | −0.32 | +0.09 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 17:06 | −0.36 | +0.16 | −0.67 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.18 | −0.05 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 15:00 | −0.48 | +0.07 | −0.58 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 21:50 | −0.50 | −0.18 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 23:45 | −0.51 | −0.39 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Richardson R | 12:23 | −0.51 | −0.46 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dylan Strome C | 11:46 | −0.52 | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 24:28 | −0.52 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Raanta G | 63:46 | +2.26 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.