STL beat PIT 5–4 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (STL 3.3, PIT 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Alex Pietrangelo scored at 1:15 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | STL–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:37 | PIT | Justin Schultz from Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P1 8:31 | STL | Brayden Schenn from Carl Gunnarsson, Jaden Schwartz | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 17:45 | STL | Colton ParaykoPP unassisted | 2–1 | 48% → 65% |
| P2 12:37 | PIT | Olli Maatta from Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin | 2–2 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 15:37 | STL | Alex Pietrangelo from Vladimir Sobotka, Paul Stastny | 3–2 | 47% → 70% |
| P3 3:38 | STL | Paul Stastny from Vladimir Sobotka, Vladimir Tarasenko | 4–2 | 75% → 92% |
| P3 13:46 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Jake Guentzel, Evgeni Malkin | 4–3 | 4% → 16% |
| P3 14:40 | PIT | Conor Sheary from Greg McKegg, Bryan Rust | 4–4 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 1:15 | STL | Alex Pietrangelo from Brayden Schenn, Jaden Schwartz | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colton Parayko D | 21:36 | 1 | +1.29 | +0.08 | +0.83 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.36 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 25:43 | 2 | +1.17 | +0.04 | +1.27 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Brayden Schenn C | 16:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.19 | +0.40 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 |
| Paul Stastny C | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.20 | −0.16 | +0.41 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 12:54 | +0.15 | +0.24 | −0.45 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.36 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 18:01 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.20 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 13:28 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tage Thompson C | 11:26 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Edmundson D | 23:22 | −0.11 | +0.04 | −0.14 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Brodziak C | 11:16 | −0.15 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 15:31 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 10:09 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Vladimir Sobotka C | 18:43 | 2 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Chris Thorburn R | 8:41 | −0.24 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 19:05 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:19 | 2 | −0.27 | +0.19 | −0.47 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vince Dunn D | 15:28 | −0.31 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 13:54 | −0.66 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.36 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 61:15 | −1.55 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Schultz D | 19:25 | 1 | +0.83 | +0.02 | +0.81 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 16:08 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.06 | +0.89 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.18 | +0.00 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 17:11 | 1 | +0.51 | −0.07 | +0.58 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sidney Crosby C | 23:39 | 1 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.10 | +0.47 | +0.06 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.02 |
| Greg McKegg C | 15:07 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.18 | +0.09 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 14:39 | +0.12 | +0.17 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.18 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 8:04 | +0.11 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:05 | +0.05 | +0.15 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:35 | +0.04 | +0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 15:40 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Reaves R | 6:21 | −0.00 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Matt Hunwick D | 16:18 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 14:56 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 13:05 | −0.11 | +0.13 | −0.23 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 7:17 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:57 | 2 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.22 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 22:17 | 2 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 18:42 | −0.29 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 61:15 | −1.94 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.