CAR beat PHI 4–3 in a shootout. CAR lost the expected-goals battle 3.0 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sebastian Aho scored on the power play at 14:50 of the third, moving CAR’s win probability from 13% to 49%. Anthony Stolarz allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–PHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:42 | CAR | Brock McGinn from Derek Ryan | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 8:46 | PHI | Dale Weise from Sean Couturier, Andrew MacDonald | 1–1 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 8:39 | CAR | Brock McGinn from Noah Hanifin, Jordan Staal | 2–1 | 48% → 79% |
| P3 10:58 | PHI | Dale Weise from Sean Couturier, Ivan Provorov | 2–2 | 19% → 52% |
| P3 12:05 | PHI | Wayne Simmonds from Shayne Gostisbehere, Jordan Weal | 2–3 | 51% → 85% |
| P3 14:50 | CAR | Sebastian AhoPP from Justin Faulk, Teuvo Teravainen | 3–3 | 13% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brock McGinn L | 10:16 | 2 | +2.45 | +0.04 | +1.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.03 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 19:14 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.18 | +0.82 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Bickell L | 13:32 | +0.63 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.68 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:55 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.33 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 25:14 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.25 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Victor Rask C | 15:55 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:08 | −0.03 | −0.10 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Ryan C | 13:48 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | |
| Lee Stempniak R | 16:27 | −0.11 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Tennyson D | 15:55 | −0.11 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 12:38 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 15:38 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 22:22 | −0.29 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 22:12 | −0.34 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:04 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.38 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Sergey Tolchinsky L | 13:49 | −0.43 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.37 | ||
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 18:26 | 1 | −0.54 | +0.05 | −0.61 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jeff Skinner L | 17:27 | −1.15 | −0.38 | −0.72 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 65:00 | +1.35 |
PHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dale Weise R | 14:29 | 2 | +1.50 | +0.07 | +1.42 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Claude Giroux R | 18:04 | +0.66 | +0.20 | −0.18 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.62 | ||
| Wayne Simmonds R | 18:31 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.11 | +0.66 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shayne Gostisbehere D | 22:05 | 1 | +0.24 | +0.35 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Mike Vecchione R | 8:45 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Schultz D | 18:00 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Sean Couturier C | 20:17 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Del Zotto D | 16:45 | −0.04 | +0.21 | −0.24 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Valtteri Filppula C | 16:49 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew MacDonald D | 20:31 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Pierre-Edouard Bellemare L | 12:31 | −0.12 | +0.17 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Konecny R | 9:41 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Cousins C | 17:04 | −0.20 | +0.24 | −0.61 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakub Voracek R | 19:09 | −0.26 | +0.26 | −0.13 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Robert Hagg D | 21:19 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brayden Schenn C | 15:07 | −0.31 | +0.07 | −0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Ivan Provorov D | 25:11 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jordan Weal C | 14:55 | 1 | −0.76 | +0.04 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.31 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stolarz G | 65:00 | −1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.