SJS beat NYR 5–4 in overtime. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 4.2 to 2.5: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brent Burns scored on the power play at 3:10 of overtime, moving SJS’s win probability from 54% to 100%. Martin Jones allowed 1.7 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:44 | SJS | Jannik Hansen from Tomas Hertl, Mikkel Boedker | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:30 | NYR | J.T. Miller from Matt Puempel | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:01 | SJS | Melker KarlssonSH from Marc-Edouard Vlasic, Justin Braun | 1–2 | 52% → 71% |
| P2 11:38 | SJS | Chris Tierney unassisted | 1–3 | 74% → 89% |
| P2 19:37 | NYR | Derek StepanPP from Mats Zuccarello, Brady Skjei | 2–3 | 9% → 23% |
| P3 1:24 | NYR | Jesper Fast from Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes | 3–3 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 4:44 | NYR | J.T. MillerPP from Brady Skjei, Kevin Hayes | 4–3 | 49% → 75% |
| P3 17:45 | SJS | Chris Tierney from Jannik Hansen, Mikkel Boedker | 4–4 | 8% → 50% |
| OT 3:10 | SJS | Brent BurnsPP from Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau | 4–5 | 54% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. Miller C | 18:26 | 2 | +1.57 | +0.08 | +1.48 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jesper Fast R | 14:42 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.07 | +0.79 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Stepan C | 21:06 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.13 | +0.79 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 18:51 | 3 | +0.17 | +0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Hayes R | 16:08 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Staal D | 19:23 | +0.03 | +0.11 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Puempel L | 8:19 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jimmy Vesey L | 10:05 | −0.06 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kreider L | 18:49 | −0.11 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 9:22 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Mats Zuccarello C | 20:31 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Rick Nash L | 16:43 | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 19:21 | −0.23 | +0.02 | −0.23 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 17:40 | −0.23 | −0.17 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Grabner L | 15:02 | −0.26 | +0.40 | −0.63 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 16:27 | −0.33 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 19:21 | −0.35 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 25:34 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 62:50 | −1.68 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Tierney C | 10:55 | 2 | +1.21 | +0.15 | +1.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Melker Karlsson C | 14:57 | 1 | +0.92 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jannik Hansen R | 16:33 | 1 | 1 | +0.66 | +0.03 | +0.60 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brent Burns D | 24:10 | 1 | +0.52 | −0.05 | +0.70 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 16:01 | +0.15 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 8:07 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 17:35 | 1 | +0.09 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.10 | |
| Joel Ward R | 15:37 | +0.04 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Paul Martin D | 17:57 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 17:26 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 23:48 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.14 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Braun D | 21:29 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 19:15 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Schlemko D | 18:08 | −0.07 | +0.14 | −0.22 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 9:02 | −0.20 | +0.10 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Marleau C | 18:59 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.03 | −0.30 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 20:02 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mikkel Boedker L | 13:59 | 2 | −0.44 | +0.06 | −0.36 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 62:48 | −1.75 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.