WSH beat MIN 5–4 in overtime. WSH lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: T.J. Oshie scored at 1:52 of overtime, moving WSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Devan Dubnyk allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–MIN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 11:36 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Nicklas Backstrom, Alex Ovechkin | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 2:17 | MIN | Jason Pominville from Martin Hanzal, Nino Niederreiter | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 7:31 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Marcus Johansson, Nicklas Backstrom | 2–1 | 48% → 68% |
| P2 12:28 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Kevin Shattenkirk, Marcus Johansson | 3–1 | 70% → 85% |
| P2 15:43 | MIN | Martin Hanzal from Jason Pominville, Jared Spurgeon | 3–2 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 12:29 | WSH | Alex OvechkinPP from Nicklas Backstrom, Marcus Johansson | 4–2 | 84% → 97% |
| P3 15:03 | MIN | Jared Spurgeon unassisted | 4–3 | 2% → 13% |
| P3 19:33 | MIN | Eric StaalPP from Jared Spurgeon, Mikko Koivu | 4–4 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:52 | WSH | T.J. Oshie from Marcus Johansson, Matt Niskanen | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Ovechkin L | 16:15 | 3 | 1 | +2.41 | +0.13 | +2.28 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| T.J. Oshie R | 19:31 | 2 | +1.67 | +0.22 | +1.47 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Justin Williams R | 14:37 | +0.37 | +0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 18:15 | 4 | +0.18 | +0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Karl Alzner D | 21:46 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Carlson D | 23:05 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 15:17 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 7:21 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 19:52 | 3 | −0.05 | +0.13 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 7:37 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brooks Orpik D | 16:42 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Winnik L | 14:45 | −0.08 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Wilson R | 13:27 | −0.14 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Niskanen D | 24:57 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jay Beagle C | 14:26 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Dmitry Orlov D | 17:19 | −0.25 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:29 | −0.30 | −0.20 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Lars Eller C | 12:55 | −0.34 | −0.23 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Braden Holtby G | 61:52 | −1.32 |
MIN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Staal C | 22:10 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.13 | +0.47 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Pominville R | 13:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jared Spurgeon D | 24:43 | 1 | 2 | +0.60 | −0.12 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Martin Hanzal C | 15:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.34 | −0.03 | +0.48 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.06 |
| Jason Zucker L | 18:21 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonas Brodin D | 21:11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Parise L | 4:01 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Stewart R | 8:31 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marco Scandella D | 18:37 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikael Granlund C | 22:07 | −0.05 | +0.02 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan White C | 5:58 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Prosser D | 7:39 | −0.12 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nino Niederreiter R | 16:38 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mikko Koivu C | 21:57 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Mathew Dumba D | 21:17 | −0.18 | −0.05 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Charlie Coyle C | 20:23 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Suter D | 27:34 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Haula L | 13:27 | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Devan Dubnyk G | 60:50 | −3.33 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.