EDM beat COL 7–4. EDM also won the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 1.9: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Drake Caggiula scored at 17:49 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 50% to 92%. Jeremy Smith allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:20 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Nathan MacKinnon | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 9:54 | COL | J.T. Compher from Joe Colborne | 0–2 | 70% → 83% |
| P1 19:29 | EDM | Andrej Sekera from Mark Letestu, Drake Caggiula | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 0:26 | EDM | Milan Lucic from Jordan Eberle, Kris Russell | 2–2 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 4:22 | COL | Mikko Rantanen from Nathan MacKinnon, Sven Andrighetto | 2–3 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 17:45 | COL | Rene Bourque from Joe Colborne | 2–4 | 76% → 91% |
| P3 2:44 | EDM | Zack Kassian from Benoit Pouliot, Andrej Sekera | 3–4 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 4:34 | EDM | Jordan Eberle from Andrej Sekera, Connor McDavid | 4–4 | 21% → 48% |
| P3 17:49 | EDM | Drake Caggiula from Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 5–4 | 50% → 92% |
| P3 18:50 | EDM | Jordan Eberle from Connor McDavid | 6–4 | 95% → 100% |
| P3 19:19 | EDM | Leon DraisaitlEN from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 7–4 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 17:00 | 2 | 1 | +1.50 | +0.03 | +1.47 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Drake Caggiula L | 14:45 | 1 | 1 | +0.99 | +0.25 | +0.74 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Andrej Sekera D | 20:13 | 1 | 2 | +0.81 | +0.14 | +0.70 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Zack Kassian R | 12:57 | 1 | +0.71 | +0.07 | +0.64 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Milan Lucic L | 16:27 | 1 | +0.39 | −0.10 | +0.48 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Larsson D | 20:11 | +0.15 | +0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 23:28 | +0.10 | +0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 20:54 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Letestu C | 16:11 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 14:19 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 18:13 | 2 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.07 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.05 | |
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 11:14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 15:13 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 12:30 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| David Desharnais C | 10:34 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 16:15 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 14:54 | 1 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.08 | −0.19 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.05 |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 18:42 | 2 | −0.61 | +0.19 | −0.75 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Laurent Brossoit G | 20:00 | +0.54 |
| Cam Talbot G | 40:00 | −2.89 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mikko Rantanen R | 17:01 | 2 | +1.54 | +0.05 | +1.30 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Rene Bourque R | 12:08 | 1 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.82 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Compher L | 15:34 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.13 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 18:12 | 2 | +0.15 | +0.06 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Tyson Barrie D | 22:57 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lindholm D | 15:35 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 10:19 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Tyutin D | 19:00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Duchene C | 16:38 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 13:35 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Francois Beauchemin D | 18:35 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 16:59 | −0.15 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 20:02 | −0.16 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| John Mitchell C | 13:42 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Nieto L | 16:23 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 20:21 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 12:54 | −0.29 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 16:23 | 1 | −0.30 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Smith G | 59:42 | −3.00 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.