ARI beat LAK 3–2 in a shootout. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 4.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Max Domi scored on the power play at 19:15 of the third, moving ARI’s win probability from 4% to 49%. Louis Domingue saved 6.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:03 | LAK | Tyler Toffoli from Jake Muzzin, Anze Kopitar | 0–1 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 5:49 | ARI | Max Domi from Christian Dvorak, Jakob Chychrun | 1–1 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 18:24 | LAK | Tyler ToffoliPP from Jeff Carter, Anze Kopitar | 1–2 | 52% → 95% |
| P3 19:15 | ARI | Max DomiPP from Shane Doan, Radim Vrbata | 2–2 | 4% → 49% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Domi C | 17:48 | 2 | +1.16 | +0.28 | +1.32 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Tony DeAngelo D | 14:21 | +1.14 | +0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +1.03 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 9:18 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 19:08 | −0.08 | −0.28 | −0.29 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.68 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 16:53 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 26:16 | −0.19 | −0.20 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Josh Jooris R | 12:40 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 13:59 | −0.25 | −0.06 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 21:11 | −0.38 | −0.52 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 9:58 | −0.49 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 13:51 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.06 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 21:48 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 | |
| Radim Vrbata R | 17:50 | 1 | −0.51 | +0.13 | −0.26 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.37 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 26:45 | −0.74 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 10:00 | −0.80 | +0.14 | −0.37 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | −0.47 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 19:34 | 1 | −0.81 | +0.04 | −0.54 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 21:52 | −0.96 | −0.46 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:55 | −1.17 | −0.59 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.03 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 64:38 | +6.05 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Toffoli C | 18:32 | 2 | +1.04 | +0.50 | +0.99 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | |
| Jake Muzzin D | 21:48 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.50 | −0.15 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 21:43 | 1 | +0.33 | +0.21 | −0.38 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 | +0.68 | |
| Kyle Clifford L | 8:53 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul LaDue D | 15:46 | +0.00 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Forbort D | 21:24 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Kevin Gravel D | 15:36 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 20:55 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.21 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Andy Andreoff C | 7:57 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 30:14 | −0.24 | +0.21 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 15:12 | −0.33 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.47 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 9:56 | −0.46 | +0.17 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:46 | −0.48 | +0.06 | −0.05 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Jarome Iginla R | 16:46 | −0.55 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Marian Gaborik R | 13:49 | −0.65 | +0.17 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 17:43 | −0.66 | −0.02 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:18 | 2 | −0.72 | +0.06 | −0.46 | +0.04 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.16 | −0.37 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 17:42 | −1.18 | +0.22 | −0.87 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.47 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ben Bishop G | 65:00 | +3.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.