PIT beat EDM 3–2 in a shootout. PIT lost the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 5.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored on the power play at 12:45 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 18% to 51%. Marc-Andre Fleury saved 3.0 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:42 | PIT | Nick Bonino from Scott Wilson, Justin Schultz | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:25 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin unassisted | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 4:55 | EDM | David Desharnais from Zack Kassian, Kris Russell | 2–1 | 18% → 33% |
| P3 12:45 | EDM | Connor McDavidPP from Milan Lucic, Leon Draisaitl | 2–2 | 18% → 51% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Kessel R | 21:07 | +0.64 | −0.37 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +1.03 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 16:08 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.43 | +0.48 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Wilson C | 11:13 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 13:53 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 9:50 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oskar Sundqvist C | 8:06 | −0.15 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 22:46 | −0.20 | −0.33 | −0.63 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.09 | +0.81 | ||
| Mark Streit D | 18:07 | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 17:58 | −0.29 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 11:34 | −0.29 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Guentzel C | 19:14 | −0.31 | −0.37 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 21:51 | −0.38 | −0.39 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 17:32 | −0.49 | −0.04 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 15:02 | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 18:40 | −0.57 | −0.46 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 25:15 | 1 | −0.77 | −0.44 | −0.12 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:39 | 1 | −0.85 | −0.20 | −0.29 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.31 | |
| Brian Dumoulin D | 25:39 | −0.86 | −0.31 | −0.53 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 65:00 | +3.01 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Desharnais C | 11:42 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.18 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 26:53 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.23 | −0.44 | +0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.71 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:01 | +0.50 | +0.46 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.06 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Klefbom D | 24:52 | +0.28 | +0.46 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Jordan Eberle R | 18:17 | +0.26 | +0.38 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 21:45 | 1 | +0.23 | +0.37 | −0.16 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Matt Benning D | 14:26 | +0.21 | +0.20 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Darnell Nurse D | 16:49 | +0.13 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Hendricks C | 8:32 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 24:32 | +0.09 | +0.39 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 21:17 | +0.07 | +0.30 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Iiro Pakarinen R | 7:44 | +0.00 | +0.10 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Letestu C | 13:37 | −0.07 | +0.26 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.37 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 17:39 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.24 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:30 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.27 | −0.20 | +0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.05 | −0.31 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 11:31 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.20 | −0.34 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Maroon L | 19:02 | −0.30 | +0.22 | −0.52 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 12:14 | −0.45 | +0.14 | −0.58 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 65:00 | +0.70 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.