STL beat ANA 4–3. STL also won the expected-goals battle 3.2 to 2.3: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Joel Edmundson scored at 19:40 of the third, moving STL’s win probability from 51% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ANA–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:12 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:59 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Ryan Getzlaf, Sami Vatanen | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:12 | ANA | Chris Wagner from Jared Boll, Cam Fowler | 2–1 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 4:17 | STL | Ryan Reaves from Jaden Schwartz, Paul Stastny | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 0:25 | STL | Paul Stastny from Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Pietrangelo | 2–3 | 52% → 77% |
| P3 9:24 | ANA | Jakob SilfverbergPP from Rickard Rakell, Kevin Bieksa | 3–3 | 18% → 48% |
| P3 19:40 | STL | Joel Edmundson from Robert Bortuzzo, Jake Allen | 3–4 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wagner R | 6:56 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.03 | +0.79 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Rickard Rakell R | 18:14 | 1 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.05 | +0.56 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 17:44 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.11 | +0.53 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cam Fowler D | 24:26 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 16:47 | +0.02 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 21:26 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.11 | −0.11 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nate Thompson C | 13:19 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ondrej Kase R | 12:30 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Shaw R | 8:35 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 23:13 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.07 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 15:37 | −0.09 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Eaves R | 16:54 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared Boll R | 6:08 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Manson D | 20:41 | −0.17 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 16:15 | −0.24 | −0.14 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hampus Lindholm D | 21:18 | −0.30 | −0.10 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Kesler C | 19:04 | −0.41 | −0.22 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Kevin Bieksa D | 17:13 | 1 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| John Gibson G | 59:40 | −0.43 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joel Edmundson D | 18:41 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.13 | +0.86 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 18:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.06 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 16:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | −0.00 | +0.44 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Reaves R | 12:56 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.30 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:55 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 13:40 | +0.07 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Perron L | 17:33 | +0.02 | +0.13 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jori Lehtera C | 13:47 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 23:43 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Magnus Paajarvi L | 10:17 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 17:07 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.17 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 13:31 | −0.08 | +0.08 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Steen L | 18:27 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 13:27 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 17:43 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 13:01 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Scottie Upshall R | 11:30 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 17:42 | −0.27 | +0.14 | −0.42 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 59:44 | −0.62 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.