NYI beat VAN 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYI 2.4, VAN 2.4), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Andrew Ladd scored at 1:33 of overtime, moving NYI’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Ryan Miller allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:01 |  NYI | John Tavares from Josh Bailey, Anders Lee | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 1:35 | VAN | Reid Boucher from Bo Horvat, Troy Stecher | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 3:31 | VAN | Sven Baertschi unassisted | 1–2 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 9:44 | NYI | Anthony Beauvillier from Josh Bailey | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 19:36 | NYI | Brock Nelson from Nick Leddy, Josh Bailey | 3–2 | 48% → 72% |
| P3 19:40 | VAN | Troy StecherPP from Henrik Sedin, Markus Granlund | 3–3 | 4% → 51% |
| OT 1:33 | NYI | Andrew Ladd from Calvin de Haan, Ryan Strome | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 12:27 | 1 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.80 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Brock Nelson C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.01 | +0.76 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Ladd L | 17:26 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.17 | +0.42 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Tavares C | 22:07 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.04 | +0.33 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Thomas Hickey D | 18:00 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calvin de Haan D | 22:30 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.18 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dennis Seidenberg D | 17:10 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 16:27 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Travis Hamonic D | 23:53 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Stephen Gionta C | 9:19 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 15:25 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Joshua Ho-Sang R | 16:26 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Chimera L | 13:37 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 19:42 | 3 | −0.06 | +0.10 | −0.18 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Leddy D | 19:28 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Strome C | 10:06 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 11:40 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anders Lee C | 16:27 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.17 | −0.36 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 61:33 | +0.01 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Troy Stecher D | 18:50 | 1 | 1 | +1.14 | +0.09 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Reid Boucher C | 14:47 | 1 | +0.49 | +0.03 | +0.48 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sven Baertschi L | 17:08 | 1 | +0.48 | −0.13 | +0.62 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Edler D | 25:22 | +0.10 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Sedin C | 19:58 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Biega D | 6:15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joseph Cramarossa C | 6:39 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 18:56 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 11:00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Tryamkin D | 13:14 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 21:42 | −0.21 | +0.02 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 16:08 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 14:17 | −0.21 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 21:28 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.11 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Michael Chaput C | 10:59 | −0.22 | −0.16 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 19:36 | −0.24 | +0.06 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 22:39 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.19 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Hutton D | 20:40 | −0.52 | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 60:34 | −1.34 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.