NSH beat BUF 5–4 in overtime. NSH also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.4: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Filip Forsberg scored at 2:45 of overtime, moving NSH’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Pekka Rinne allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 15:52 | BUF | Brian Gionta from Zach Bogosian, Jack Eichel | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P1 17:26 | BUF | Kyle Okposo from Jake McCabe, Matt Moulson | 0–2 | 71% → 85% |
| P1 18:49 | NSH | Mike Fisher from Austin Watson, Matt Irwin | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 2:09 | NSH | Colin WilsonPP from Ryan Johansen, Roman Josi | 2–2 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 5:35 | BUF | Evander Kane from Brian Gionta, Cody Franson | 2–3 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 0:56 | BUF | Jake McCabe from Kyle Okposo, Ryan O'Reilly | 2–4 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 11:16 | NSH | Ryan Johansen from Filip Forsberg, Matt Irwin | 3–4 | 3% → 16% |
| P3 17:37 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Viktor Arvidsson | 4–4 | 7% → 49% |
| OT 2:45 | NSH | Filip Forsberg from Roman Josi | 5–4 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Forsberg L | 19:59 | 2 | 1 | +1.48 | −0.02 | +1.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Ryan Johansen C | 20:58 | 1 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.04 | +0.91 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Mike Fisher C | 16:29 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.08 | +0.59 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Colin Wilson C | 18:51 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.14 | +0.47 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| P.K. Subban D | 22:54 | +0.40 | +0.18 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 19:09 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Yannick Weber D | 9:39 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Irwin D | 10:30 | 2 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Austin Watson L | 9:35 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Roman Josi D | 30:55 | 2 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.29 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Vernon Fiddler C | 7:05 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Harry Zolnierczyk L | 6:15 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 13:00 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Ellis D | 27:34 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.20 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 12:14 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.19 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James Neal L | 18:20 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.36 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 20:13 | −0.28 | −0.03 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 20:54 | 1 | −0.50 | −0.08 | −0.43 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Pekka Rinne G | 62:45 | −1.87 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Gionta R | 16:10 | 1 | 1 | +0.68 | −0.11 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jake McCabe D | 21:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.05 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Kyle Okposo R | 20:49 | 1 | 1 | +0.55 | +0.01 | +0.53 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Evander Kane L | 18:21 | 1 | +0.19 | −0.16 | +0.73 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Josh Gorges D | 17:55 | +0.14 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:13 | 1 | +0.11 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Cody Franson D | 19:43 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Ennis R | 8:43 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Bailey R | 10:16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 16:32 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 6:35 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:32 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 18:08 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 17:42 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evan Rodrigues C | 13:05 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 25:18 | −0.26 | +0.02 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 22:04 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.05 | −0.27 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 14:28 | −0.34 | −0.05 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 62:45 | −1.50 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.