BOS beat ARI 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (ARI 1.9, BOS 2.0), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Riley Nash scored short-handed at 7:07 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 52% to 72%. Mike Smith allowed 2.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | ARI–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:06 | BOS | Colin Miller from David Pastrnak, David Krejci | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 3:27 | ARI | Peter HollandPP from Brendan Perlini, Radim Vrbata | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 7:07 | BOS | Riley NashSH from Patrice Bergeron | 1–2 | 52% → 72% |
| P2 18:05 | BOS | David Backes from Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron | 1–3 | 76% → 91% |
| P2 19:49 | BOS | Brad Marchand unassisted | 1–4 | 92% → 98% |
Every player
Show both lineups
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Holland C | 17:36 | 1 | +0.17 | −0.02 | +0.29 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 23:33 | +0.16 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 4:35 | +0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 15:06 | +0.12 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 16:07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 16:05 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.07 | −0.21 | +0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Vrbata R | 16:06 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 9:09 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tobias Rieder L | 16:32 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Max Domi C | 17:37 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Jooris R | 11:17 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tony DeAngelo D | 20:44 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 16:16 | −0.17 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 18:10 | −0.19 | +0.02 | −0.10 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 13:12 | −0.20 | −0.03 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 15:39 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 24:09 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 20:07 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Louis Domingue G | 20:00 | +1.12 |
| Mike Smith G | 40:00 | −2.85 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Nash C | 12:01 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.12 | +0.84 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| David Backes R | 14:26 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.03 | +0.45 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brad Marchand L | 16:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.04 | +0.42 | +0.16 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Colin Miller D | 6:27 | 1 | +0.41 | −0.02 | +0.44 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Torey Krug D | 20:04 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 17:35 | 2 | +0.11 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Adam McQuaid D | 19:07 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 26:22 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.10 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 13:54 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Ryan Spooner C | 14:28 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 16:21 | 1 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.19 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tim Schaller L | 11:31 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Hayes R | 10:59 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 23:43 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.08 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Cehlarik L | 14:47 | −0.11 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 15:47 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.08 | |
| Kevan Miller D | 20:39 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 12:41 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 60:00 | +1.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.