BOS beat LAK 4–1. BOS lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: David Pastrnak scored on the power play at 4:43 of the second, moving BOS’s win probability from 48% to 67%. Anton Khudobin saved 1.4 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:16 | BOS | Brad Marchand unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 18:12 | LAK | Kevin GravelPP from Adrian Kempe, Alec Martinez | 1–1 | 35% → 53% |
| P2 4:43 | BOS | David PastrnakPP from Ryan Spooner, Patrice Bergeron | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P3 18:58 | BOS | Dominic MooreEN from Brad Marchand, Adam McQuaid | 3–1 | 94% → 100% |
| P3 19:52 | BOS | David KrejciEN from Torey Krug | 4–1 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Marchand L | 18:09 | 1 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.01 | +0.79 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| David Pastrnak R | 16:53 | 1 | +0.42 | −0.09 | +0.49 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Beleskey L | 11:54 | +0.08 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 10:31 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Peter Cehlarik L | 14:32 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 10:36 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 20:22 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 23:51 | −0.09 | +0.07 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 9:48 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:28 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.12 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Adam McQuaid D | 20:35 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 11:27 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| David Backes R | 19:40 | −0.16 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Carlo D | 22:49 | −0.16 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 20:44 | −0.19 | −0.21 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Hayes R | 9:24 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 12:49 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.03 | |
| David Krejci C | 20:00 | 1 | −0.37 | −0.24 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anton Khudobin G | 60:00 | +1.39 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Gravel D | 17:52 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.13 | +0.66 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Toffoli C | 16:47 | +0.14 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marian Gaborik R | 11:23 | +0.10 | +0.08 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Shore C | 12:42 | +0.10 | +0.13 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Brayden McNabb D | 13:57 | +0.08 | +0.11 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 12:58 | +0.05 | +0.15 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 20:50 | +0.04 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adrian Kempe R | 12:45 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 20:38 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 19:35 | −0.06 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Dwight King L | 15:05 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 18:57 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 18:14 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 8:34 | −0.13 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Doughty D | 27:51 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 15:03 | −0.20 | −0.02 | −0.21 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 20:18 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Trevor Lewis C | 13:26 | −0.42 | +0.13 | −0.53 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Budaj G | 59:41 | −0.76 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.