ANA beat BOS 5–3. ANA lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 3.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Rickard Rakell scored at 17:26 of the third, moving ANA’s win probability from 51% to 93%. Tuukka Rask allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BOS–ANA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 9:02 | BOS | Brandon Carlo from David Backes | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 2:03 | ANA | Ondrej Kase from Nick Ritchie, Ryan Getzlaf | 1–1 | 34% → 53% |
| P2 6:55 | BOS | Zdeno Chara from David Backes, Frank Vatrano | 2–1 | 48% → 67% |
| P2 7:42 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Corey Perry | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:12 | ANA | Josh Manson from Nick Ritchie, Ondrej Kase | 2–3 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 11:35 | BOS | Frank Vatrano from David Krejci, Kevan Miller | 3–3 | 16% → 48% |
| P3 17:26 | ANA | Rickard Rakell from Corey Perry, Kevin Bieksa | 3–4 | 51% → 93% |
| P3 19:11 | ANA | Andrew CoglianoEN from Ryan Kesler, Jakob Silfverberg | 3–5 | 96% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zdeno Chara D | 21:49 | 1 | +0.87 | −0.00 | +0.86 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 18:33 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.02 | +0.87 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:24 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.02 | +0.58 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| David Pastrnak R | 18:32 | +0.32 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 23:55 | +0.29 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 16:25 | 2 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colin Miller D | 15:39 | +0.03 | +0.02 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Beleskey L | 11:20 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam McQuaid D | 16:16 | −0.05 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 13:05 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| David Krejci C | 19:07 | 1 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Riley Nash C | 13:27 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 19:07 | −0.16 | +0.13 | −0.31 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Hayes R | 10:00 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 15:27 | 1 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 16:16 | −0.21 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Peter Cehlarik L | 11:35 | −0.26 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrice Bergeron C | 18:33 | −0.75 | +0.18 | −0.78 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 59:30 | −1.95 |
ANA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rickard Rakell R | 12:55 | 2 | +1.62 | +0.06 | +1.56 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Josh Manson D | 18:23 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.04 | +0.68 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ondrej Kase R | 12:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.05 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nicolas Kerdiles L | 11:08 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jakob Silfverberg R | 19:54 | 1 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Corey Perry R | 14:30 | 2 | −0.03 | +0.08 | −0.30 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Hampus Lindholm D | 22:00 | −0.05 | +0.11 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Sami Vatanen D | 22:31 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nate Thompson C | 10:12 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Joseph Cramarossa C | 8:13 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Ritchie L | 12:56 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Korbinian Holzer D | 14:08 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Getzlaf C | 20:44 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Logan Shaw R | 10:05 | −0.20 | −0.08 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cam Fowler D | 24:50 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Cogliano C | 14:42 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Bieksa D | 18:43 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Kesler C | 21:13 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.10 | −0.25 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bernier G | 60:00 | −0.11 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.