VAN beat CGY 2–1 in overtime. VAN lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 2.6 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Chris Tanev scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Ryan Miller saved 1.9 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CGY–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:44 | VAN | Alexander Edler from Troy Stecher | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 19:54 | CGY | Mark GiordanoPP from Matthew Tkachuk, Michael Frolik | 1–1 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 0:34 | VAN | Chris Tanev from Daniel Sedin | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CGY
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Giordano D | 25:23 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.03 | +0.87 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matthew Tkachuk L | 13:14 | 1 | +0.36 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.35 | −0.02 | |
| TJ Brodie D | 25:07 | +0.17 | +0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Freddie Hamilton C | 7:23 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Bartkowski D | 10:55 | +0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Stajan C | 10:15 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Wideman D | 13:35 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Deryk Engelland D | 22:44 | −0.03 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Micheal Ferland L | 11:49 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Bennett C | 14:47 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Johnny Gaudreau L | 18:40 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.28 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lance Bouma L | 11:03 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sean Monahan C | 18:15 | −0.27 | +0.04 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Michael Frolik R | 16:36 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.07 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mikael Backlund C | 18:06 | −0.33 | +0.03 | −0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dougie Hamilton D | 17:45 | −0.37 | +0.08 | −0.28 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Versteeg R | 19:06 | −0.49 | +0.01 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.02 | ||
| Troy Brouwer R | 18:04 | −0.59 | +0.05 | −0.45 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Brian Elliott G | 59:29 | +0.22 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Edler D | 25:30 | 1 | +0.81 | +0.04 | +0.94 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Tanev D | 22:22 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.00 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jannik Hansen R | 14:40 | +0.18 | +0.03 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Tryamkin D | 12:11 | +0.12 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 19:19 | +0.05 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Markus Granlund C | 18:29 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Jack Skille R | 4:47 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jayson Megna C | 14:54 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Sutter C | 16:00 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Troy Stecher D | 20:46 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brendan Gaunce C | 7:38 | −0.14 | +0.03 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Chaput C | 9:34 | −0.17 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Bo Horvat C | 18:59 | −0.19 | −0.07 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Sedin C | 19:02 | −0.28 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Ben Hutton D | 15:29 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 17:11 | −0.28 | −0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 18:09 | −0.39 | −0.09 | −0.29 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 18:42 | 1 | −0.48 | −0.07 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Ryan Miller G | 60:34 | +1.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.