FLA beat SJS 6–5 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau scored at 1:38 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Martin Jones allowed 4.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 4:20 | FLA | Jussi Jokinen from Reilly Smith, Vincent Trocheck | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 4:51 | SJS | Brent Burns from Joe Pavelski | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 5:35 | FLA | Nick Bjugstad from Aaron Ekblad, Mark Pysyk | 2–1 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 7:12 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Keith Yandle, Jonathan Huberdeau | 3–1 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 15:25 | SJS | Joel Ward from Joe Thornton, Brent Burns | 3–2 | 21% → 35% |
| P2 6:27 | SJS | Marc-Edouard Vlasic from Kevin Labanc, Joe Pavelski | 3–3 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 2:15 | FLA | Nick Bjugstad from Alexander Petrovic | 4–3 | 48% → 74% |
| P3 12:41 | FLA | Aleksander Barkov from Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Petrovic | 5–3 | 83% → 97% |
| P3 16:39 | SJS | Joe Pavelski from David Schlemko, Brenden Dillon | 5–4 | 1% → 10% |
| P3 19:22 | SJS | Joe PavelskiPP from Tomas Hertl, David Schlemko | 5–5 | 5% → 51% |
| OT 1:38 | FLA | Jonathan Huberdeau from Aleksander Barkov | 6–5 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aleksander Barkov C | 19:58 | 2 | 1 | +2.00 | +0.29 | +1.69 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bjugstad C | 14:27 | 2 | +1.61 | +0.11 | +1.50 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Huberdeau L | 17:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.19 | +0.56 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Jussi Jokinen L | 18:12 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.14 | +0.86 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 21:17 | +0.13 | +0.41 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 16:57 | 2 | +0.09 | +0.11 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 21:13 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 10:27 | −0.03 | +0.09 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 11:43 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Thornton L | 7:11 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:17 | −0.15 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 18:00 | −0.28 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 17:00 | 1 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:16 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.27 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 18:06 | 1 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 20:23 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.24 | −0.09 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek MacKenzie C | 11:38 | −0.35 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.07 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:38 | 1 | −0.38 | −0.36 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 2:16 | +0.26 |
| Roberto Luongo G | 59:22 | −1.64 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Pavelski C | 19:21 | 2 | 2 | +1.74 | +0.35 | +1.36 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Brent Burns D | 25:32 | 1 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.35 | +0.80 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:39 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.06 | +0.88 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Ward R | 16:13 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.17 | +0.78 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Tierney C | 13:36 | +0.26 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.04 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 15:42 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 19:34 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.19 | −0.20 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Brenden Dillon D | 15:48 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Martin D | 19:49 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Hertl C | 16:26 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.06 | |
| Micheal Haley L | 9:50 | −0.06 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Justin Braun D | 18:04 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Melker Karlsson C | 13:13 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.12 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 16:32 | −0.30 | +0.02 | −0.51 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 16:46 | −0.31 | −0.05 | −0.25 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Schlemko D | 19:11 | 2 | −0.35 | −0.13 | −0.23 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Marleau C | 16:16 | −0.44 | −0.15 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Timo Meier R | 10:08 | −0.46 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Martin Jones G | 60:52 | −4.12 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.