BUF beat OTT 3–2. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 2.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Justin Bailey scored at 7:38 of the third, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Craig Anderson allowed 1.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:24 | BUF | Ryan O'Reilly from Kyle Okposo, Justin Falk | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 14:45 | OTT | Bobby Ryan from Erik Karlsson, Fredrik Claesson | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| P2 14:33 | OTT | Dion Phaneuf from Bobby Ryan | 1–2 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 0:51 | BUF | Matt Moulson from Sam Reinhart, Jack Eichel | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 7:38 | BUF | Justin Bailey from Jake McCabe, Rasmus Ristolainen | 3–2 | 48% → 78% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 21:49 | 1 | +0.73 | −0.04 | +0.73 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Justin Bailey R | 14:02 | 1 | +0.66 | −0.04 | +0.70 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Moulson L | 15:42 | 1 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.37 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evan Rodrigues C | 12:07 | +0.02 | −0.11 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.04 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:33 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake McCabe D | 19:36 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 5:58 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 15:24 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 16:39 | −0.05 | +0.13 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 14:32 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:30 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 21:04 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.16 | −0.06 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.08 | |
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 26:03 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 18:55 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Grant C | 8:37 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 9:22 | −0.18 | +0.06 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Josh Gorges D | 20:28 | −0.18 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 20:39 | −0.28 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 60:00 | +0.78 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bobby Ryan R | 18:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.88 | +0.18 | +0.49 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 24:44 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.68 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 22:58 | +0.19 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Marc Methot D | 19:05 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 15:06 | +0.05 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Borowiecki D | 13:05 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derick Brassard C | 14:17 | −0.00 | +0.10 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 12:03 | −0.01 | +0.08 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 4:52 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 11:51 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 29:23 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 17:31 | −0.13 | +0.05 | −0.08 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 16:22 | −0.16 | +0.07 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 9:58 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 16:43 | −0.25 | +0.07 | −0.32 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 7:53 | −0.27 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 19:40 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 21:34 | −0.51 | +0.01 | −0.54 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Craig Anderson G | 58:49 | −1.25 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.