ARI beat PIT 4–3 in overtime. ARI lost the expected-goals battle 2.5 to 4.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Connor Murphy scored at 4:38 of overtime, moving ARI’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 5:41 | PIT | Josh Archibald from Eric Fehr, Tom Kuhnhackl | 1–0 | 47% → 67% |
| P2 6:40 | ARI | Tobias Rieder unassisted | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 9:00 | ARI | Martin HanzalPP from Radim Vrbata, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 3:36 | ARI | Martin Hanzal from Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi | 1–3 | 79% → 93% |
| P3 14:38 | PIT | Josh ArchibaldSH unassisted | 2–3 | 1% → 11% |
| P3 19:45 | PIT | Phil KesselPP from Jake Guentzel, Kris Letang | 3–3 | 3% → 49% |
| OT 4:38 | ARI | Connor Murphy from Alexander Burmistrov | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Archibald R | 10:03 | 2 | +1.81 | +0.23 | +1.42 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 20:40 | 1 | +0.63 | −0.13 | +0.75 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Wilson C | 10:12 | +0.11 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 10:10 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 19:26 | +0.08 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 18:53 | +0.07 | +0.14 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 16:38 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 19:51 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carter Rowney C | 12:02 | +0.01 | +0.14 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 17:46 | −0.04 | +0.15 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:54 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.33 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.02 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 9:57 | 1 | −0.10 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Kris Letang D | 25:59 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.19 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 20:19 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.16 | −0.52 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Cullen C | 16:59 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 24:41 | −0.27 | −0.05 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 23:44 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 15:22 | −0.81 | +0.20 | −1.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 63:40 | −1.26 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Hanzal C | 23:39 | 2 | +1.27 | −0.06 | +1.30 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Connor Murphy D | 13:18 | 1 | +0.88 | −0.05 | +0.93 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tobias Rieder L | 17:24 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.07 | +0.56 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 28:35 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Stone D | 23:12 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lawson Crouse L | 10:19 | −0.04 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan White C | 7:55 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Connauton D | 13:10 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luke Schenn D | 20:37 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Martinook L | 12:04 | −0.14 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.07 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 15:54 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 12:45 | −0.26 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 15:26 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Goligoski D | 25:22 | −0.41 | −0.42 | −0.01 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Perlini L | 12:27 | −0.42 | −0.12 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Christian Dvorak C | 15:19 | −0.43 | −0.34 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Radim Vrbata R | 20:21 | 1 | −0.52 | −0.13 | −0.38 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Max Domi C | 20:54 | 1 | −0.60 | −0.32 | −0.17 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 64:38 | +0.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.