TOR beat BOS 6–5. TOR lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.8 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: James van Riemsdyk scored at 18:24 of the third, moving TOR’s win probability from 50% to 94%. Tuukka Rask allowed 2.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:17 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 11:15 |  TOR | William Nylander from Nazem Kadri, Auston Matthews | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 8:31 | TOR | James van Riemsdyk from Mitch Marner | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 9:09 | TOR | William Nylander unassisted | 3–1 | 68% → 84% |
| P2 10:17 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Connor Brown, Auston Matthews | 4–1 | 85% → 95% |
| P2 10:55 | BOS | David Pastrnak from Patrice Bergeron, Zdeno Chara | 4–2 | 5% → 15% |
| P2 15:53 | BOS | Torey KrugPP from David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner | 4–3 | 13% → 29% |
| P3 10:06 | BOS | Ryan Spooner from Zdeno Chara, Dominic Moore | 4–4 | 20% → 52% |
| P3 15:15 | TOR | Connor Brown from Zach Hyman, Auston Matthews | 5–4 | 49% → 87% |
| P3 17:06 | BOS | Patrice BergeronPP from Torey Krug, Brad Marchand | 5–5 | 10% → 51% |
| P3 18:24 | TOR | James van Riemsdyk from Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner | 6–5 | 50% → 94% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Nylander R | 16:39 | 3 | +2.20 | −0.03 | +2.24 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:25 | 2 | +1.61 | −0.04 | +1.65 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 16:16 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | +0.09 | +0.57 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Connor Carrick D | 16:46 | +0.12 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 17:31 | 1 | +0.05 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 21:38 | +0.05 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 4:43 | +0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 25:41 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 17:40 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 15:15 | 2 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Morgan Rielly D | 22:18 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 16:11 | 3 | −0.21 | +0.19 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Nikita Soshnikov R | 8:32 | −0.23 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 19:02 | −0.40 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.05 | ||
| Ben Smith R | 11:30 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 20:13 | −0.44 | −0.45 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Martin Marincin D | 11:28 | −0.54 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:14 | 1 | −0.59 | −0.04 | −0.34 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 60:00 | −1.12 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Pastrnak R | 21:07 | 2 | 1 | +1.96 | +0.27 | +1.42 | +0.11 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Ryan Spooner C | 12:14 | 1 | 1 | +1.17 | +0.33 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 |
| Torey Krug D | 27:29 | 1 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.21 | +0.47 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:08 | 1 | 2 | +0.32 | +0.18 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.11 |
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:31 | +0.12 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 16:07 | +0.10 | −0.07 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 6:44 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Colin Miller D | 16:59 | +0.03 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 16:16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zdeno Chara D | 18:05 | 3 | −0.00 | +0.06 | −0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Beleskey L | 12:36 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Krejci C | 19:30 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Austin Czarnik C | 13:01 | −0.09 | +0.05 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 22:19 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.23 | −0.42 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dominic Moore C | 8:06 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | |
| Riley Nash C | 15:58 | −0.19 | +0.03 | −0.36 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam McQuaid D | 15:39 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| David Backes R | 16:26 | −0.42 | −0.16 | −0.25 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Zane McIntyre G | 28:46 | −1.08 |
| Tuukka Rask G | 30:15 | −2.52 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.