NYR beat BUF 2–1 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (NYR 3.7, BUF 3.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Chris Kreider scored at 3:56 of overtime, moving NYR’s win probability from 50% to 100%. Henrik Lundqvist saved 2.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYR–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 17:50 | NYR | Mats ZuccarelloPP from Ryan McDonagh, J.T. Miller | 1–0 | 48% → 71% |
| P3 14:29 | BUF | Cody Franson from Ryan O'Reilly, Tyler Ennis | 1–1 | 14% → 51% |
| OT 3:56 | NYR | Chris Kreider from J.T. Miller, Mika Zibanejad | 2–1 | 50% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mats Zuccarello C | 19:44 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.12 | +0.22 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Chris Kreider L | 18:43 | 1 | +0.38 | −0.06 | +0.46 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| J.T. Miller C | 17:38 | 2 | +0.38 | +0.30 | −0.16 | +0.22 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brady Skjei D | 14:34 | +0.13 | +0.35 | −0.03 | −0.17 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan McDonagh D | 26:19 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.10 | −0.09 | +0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Grabner L | 16:15 | −0.03 | +0.32 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Pavel Buchnevich L | 7:10 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mika Zibanejad C | 19:25 | 1 | −0.04 | −0.17 | −0.04 | +0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Matt Puempel L | 6:51 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rick Nash L | 19:56 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Oscar Lindberg L | 7:25 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Derek Stepan C | 20:58 | −0.18 | +0.22 | −0.14 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Marc Staal D | 21:59 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jimmy Vesey L | 14:30 | −0.25 | −0.10 | −0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jesper Fast R | 15:59 | −0.26 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Nick Holden D | 25:21 | −0.27 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dan Girardi D | 18:45 | −0.33 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Klein D | 14:37 | −0.42 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Henrik Lundqvist G | 63:39 | +2.22 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Franson D | 24:57 | 1 | +0.45 | +0.18 | +0.42 | −0.17 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| William Carrier L | 6:02 | +0.15 | +0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 13:47 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Bogosian D | 5:33 | +0.04 | +0.06 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 15:54 | +0.02 | +0.16 | −0.10 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 16:10 | +0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 23:16 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 2:46 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 23:19 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.23 | −0.08 | +0.07 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.03 | |
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:15 | −0.15 | +0.16 | −0.20 | −0.12 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 11:11 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 16:44 | −0.24 | +0.19 | −0.38 | −0.07 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 18:22 | −0.29 | +0.18 | −0.43 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 17:15 | −0.35 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.06 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 32:47 | −0.41 | −0.19 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dmitry Kulikov D | 27:04 | −0.42 | −0.28 | −0.04 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 20:58 | −0.53 | −0.18 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 13:58 | −0.66 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 63:56 | +1.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.