FLA beat OTT 6–5. Expected goals were close to even (OTT 2.2, FLA 1.9), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault scored at 13:57 of the third, moving FLA’s win probability from 51% to 87%. Mike Condon allowed 3.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | OTT–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:24 | FLA | Mike Matheson from Alexander Petrovic, Nick Bjugstad | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 4:59 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Kyle Turris | 1–1 | 31% → 47% |
| P1 5:22 | FLA | Mark Pysyk from Derek MacKenzie, Michael Sgarbossa | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 8:54 | OTT | Ryan Dzingel from Marc Methot, Bobby Ryan | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 19:29 | OTT | Chris Wideman from Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone | 3–2 | 47% → 65% |
| P2 2:19 | OTT | Erik Karlsson from Zack Smith, Tom Pyatt | 4–2 | 66% → 81% |
| P2 2:37 | FLA | Colton Sceviour from Jason Demers, Greg McKegg | 4–3 | 19% → 34% |
| P2 9:53 | FLA | Mike Matheson from Michael Sgarbossa | 4–4 | 32% → 53% |
| P3 13:57 | FLA | Jonathan Marchessault unassisted | 4–5 | 51% → 87% |
| P3 19:25 | FLA | Jason DemersEN unassisted | 4–6 | 96% → 100% |
| P3 19:47 | OTT | Derick BrassardPP from Bobby Ryan, Fredrik Claesson | 5–6 | 0% → 3% |
Every player
Show both lineups
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Dzingel C | 14:34 | 2 | +0.99 | −0.01 | +0.86 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 16:34 | 1 | +0.46 | −0.14 | +0.67 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:31 | 1 | 1 | +0.43 | −0.13 | +0.30 | +0.31 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Chris Wideman D | 15:21 | 1 | +0.29 | −0.09 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marc Methot D | 21:09 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.25 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 17:45 | 1 | +0.22 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 14:33 | +0.19 | +0.12 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Tommy Wingels C | 10:23 | +0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.04 | ||
| Zack Smith C | 17:42 | 1 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.10 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Bobby Ryan R | 15:53 | 2 | +0.05 | −0.02 | −0.08 | +0.15 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Pyatt L | 12:52 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.06 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kelly C | 10:44 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Chris Neil R | 9:07 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dion Phaneuf D | 20:07 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 12:22 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Stone R | 17:51 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.11 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Ceci D | 22:04 | −0.18 | +0.09 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Hoffman C | 16:50 | −0.44 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Condon G | 58:46 | −3.32 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Matheson D | 18:58 | 2 | +0.61 | +0.01 | +0.62 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 14:50 | 2 | +0.46 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.41 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Derek MacKenzie C | 15:48 | 1 | +0.38 | +0.12 | −0.00 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 14:27 | 1 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.32 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Jason Demers D | 19:54 | 1 | 1 | +0.37 | +0.09 | −0.05 | +0.31 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Mark Pysyk D | 20:57 | 1 | +0.31 | −0.07 | +0.37 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 13:53 | 1 | +0.26 | +0.03 | +0.42 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 20:22 | +0.26 | +0.11 | +0.00 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Thornton L | 7:05 | +0.19 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Vincent Trocheck C | 20:57 | +0.05 | +0.04 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.09 | ||
| Greg McKegg C | 10:34 | 1 | +0.03 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Alexander Petrovic D | 18:17 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jussi Jokinen L | 18:36 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 17:59 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 13:42 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 17:52 | −0.08 | +0.06 | −0.11 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 10:13 | −0.29 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 15:27 | −0.36 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Roberto Luongo G | 60:00 | −1.27 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.