WPG beat CHI 5–3. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.2 to 2.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Bryan Little scored at 16:29 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 49% to 89%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–CHI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:16 | WPG | Patrik LainePP from Bryan Little, Nikolaj Ehlers | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 6:58 | WPG | Shawn Matthias from Jacob Trouba | 2–0 | 63% → 76% |
| P1 13:07 | CHI | Duncan KeithPP from Brent Seabrook, Artem Anisimov | 2–1 | 23% → 36% |
| P2 4:00 | CHI | Nick Schmaltz unassisted | 2–2 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 16:37 | CHI | Tanner Kero from Patrick Kane, Trevor van Riemsdyk | 2–3 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 15:57 | WPG | Andrew Copp from Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| P3 16:29 | WPG | Bryan Little from Jacob Trouba, Patrik Laine | 4–3 | 49% → 89% |
| P3 17:57 | WPG | Mark ScheifeleEN from Andrew Copp, Blake Wheeler | 5–3 | 92% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Copp C | 16:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.77 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Shawn Matthias L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.78 | −0.11 | +0.90 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Little C | 17:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.64 | −0.09 | +0.75 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Patrik Laine L | 19:11 | 1 | 1 | +0.30 | −0.13 | +0.44 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Josh Morrissey D | 21:57 | 1 | +0.05 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Tanev L | 2:47 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 14:31 | +0.01 | −0.11 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 18:24 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.12 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Postma D | 6:26 | −0.07 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 8:59 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 28:53 | −0.12 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Toby Enstrom D | 21:06 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 3:00 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob Trouba D | 28:38 | 2 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.24 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Petan C | 10:38 | −0.32 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:49 | 1 | −0.37 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:10 | 1 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.03 | −0.48 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Adam Lowry C | 17:52 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.02 | −0.17 | −0.06 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +0.39 |
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Schmaltz C | 11:53 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.03 | +0.76 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Duncan Keith D | 26:35 | 1 | +0.72 | −0.00 | +0.70 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Kero C | 12:03 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.02 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Campbell D | 17:32 | +0.10 | +0.12 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Desjardins L | 7:01 | +0.09 | +0.11 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 18:26 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michal Kempny D | 8:54 | +0.07 | +0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brent Seabrook D | 22:47 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 23:51 | +0.02 | +0.15 | −0.11 | −0.04 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 5:44 | −0.00 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 17:03 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marcus Kruger C | 15:58 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Marian Hossa R | 16:33 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.37 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Hartman R | 13:24 | −0.28 | +0.13 | −0.41 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Artem Anisimov C | 19:05 | 1 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Richard Panik R | 14:36 | −0.29 | +0.14 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 21:06 | −0.39 | +0.01 | −0.48 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 19:12 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.03 | −0.34 | +0.07 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Scott Darling G | 59:01 | −0.91 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.