CBJ beat OTT 7–6 in overtime. CBJ lost the expected-goals battle 2.0 to 3.2 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Cam Atkinson scored at 1:09 of overtime, moving CBJ’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Mike Condon allowed 4.8 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CBJ–OTT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:42 | OTT | Zack Smith from Cody Ceci, Derick Brassard | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 1:16 | CBJ | Nick FolignoPP from Alexander Wennberg, Sam Gagner | 1–1 | 32% → 47% |
| P1 5:33 | OTT | Zack Smith from Cody Ceci, Curtis Lazar | 1–2 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 10:18 | CBJ | Scott Harrington from Alexander Wennberg, Dalton Prout | 2–2 | 30% → 47% |
| P2 0:56 | CBJ | Zach WerenskiPP from Seth Jones, Alexander Wennberg | 3–2 | 48% → 66% |
| P2 10:41 | OTT | Mike Hoffman from Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–3 | 31% → 53% |
| P2 13:08 | OTT | Mark Stone from Derick Brassard, Zack Smith | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 19:43 | OTT | Mike Hoffman from Tom Pyatt, Jean-Gabriel Pageau | 3–5 | 77% → 92% |
| P3 1:50 | CBJ | Lukas Sedlak from Scott Hartnell, Scott Harrington | 4–5 | 7% → 22% |
| P3 2:21 | CBJ | Matt Calvert from Seth Jones, William Karlsson | 5–5 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 10:50 | CBJ | Cam Atkinson from Brandon Dubinsky | 6–5 | 48% → 81% |
| P3 12:39 | OTT | Kyle TurrisPP from Dion Phaneuf, Erik Karlsson | 6–6 | 18% → 51% |
| OT 1:09 | CBJ | Cam Atkinson unassisted | 7–6 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CBJ
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Atkinson R | 16:07 | 2 | +1.59 | +0.08 | +1.51 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Werenski D | 20:26 | 1 | +0.92 | +0.24 | +0.67 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lukas Sedlak C | 12:51 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.07 | +0.72 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Scott Harrington D | 11:18 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.00 | +0.93 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Matt Calvert L | 13:40 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.06 | +0.77 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Foligno L | 16:26 | 1 | +0.57 | −0.13 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Seth Jones D | 26:25 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Boone Jenner C | 15:44 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Anderson R | 12:03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brandon Dubinsky C | 16:35 | 1 | −0.08 | +0.09 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.07 | |
| Dalton Prout D | 12:24 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scott Hartnell L | 14:10 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Wennberg C | 17:43 | 3 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| William Karlsson C | 13:15 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | |
| Sam Gagner C | 14:04 | 1 | −0.23 | +0.12 | −0.35 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brandon Saad L | 15:27 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Ryan Murray D | 25:52 | −0.32 | −0.33 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Johnson D | 22:47 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Joonas Korpisalo G | 61:09 | −2.55 |
OTT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Hoffman C | 17:17 | 2 | +1.68 | +0.22 | +1.76 | +0.05 | −0.01 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Smith C | 18:12 | 2 | 1 | +1.33 | +0.15 | +1.20 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Mark Stone R | 17:57 | 1 | +0.72 | +0.12 | +0.53 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Turris C | 18:52 | 1 | +0.61 | +0.15 | +0.38 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.08 | |
| Dion Phaneuf D | 23:34 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.18 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Neil R | 4:38 | +0.13 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Marc Methot D | 20:41 | +0.11 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Pyatt L | 16:31 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derick Brassard C | 17:47 | 2 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Curtis Lazar C | 6:10 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Chris Wideman D | 13:39 | +0.02 | +0.09 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kelly C | 11:49 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Dzingel C | 10:27 | −0.05 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bobby Ryan R | 16:49 | −0.16 | +0.09 | −0.44 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Fredrik Claesson D | 13:37 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Ceci D | 23:04 | 2 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Erik Karlsson D | 27:43 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.03 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jean-Gabriel Pageau C | 18:12 | 2 | −0.42 | +0.06 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Condon G | 61:06 | −4.78 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.