BUF beat MTL 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (BUF 3.0, MTL 3.1), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Zach Bogosian scored at 1:48 of overtime, moving BUF’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Robin Lehner saved 1.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | BUF–MTL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 3:54 | MTL | Artturi Lehkonen from Paul Byron | 0–1 | 53% → 72% |
| P2 4:50 | BUF | Brian Gionta from Evander Kane | 1–1 | 27% → 47% |
| P2 8:50 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Jeff Petry, Max Pacioretty | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 11:53 | BUF | Cody Franson from Ryan O'Reilly | 2–2 | 15% → 48% |
| OT 1:48 | BUF | Zach Bogosian from Ryan O'Reilly, Evander Kane | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Bogosian D | 25:12 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.04 | +0.67 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Cody Franson D | 21:28 | 1 | +0.81 | −0.10 | +0.90 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Gionta R | 16:51 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.15 | +0.58 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Matt Moulson L | 8:26 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.24 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:39 | 2 | +0.08 | +0.15 | −0.19 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.09 | |
| Taylor Fedun D | 18:08 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal O'Reilly C | 5:31 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Nelson D | 9:33 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 29:36 | −0.12 | +0.08 | −0.21 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Foligno L | 15:01 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 16:25 | −0.18 | +0.14 | −0.23 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 19:44 | 2 | −0.19 | +0.25 | −0.41 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Ennis R | 15:03 | −0.20 | −0.12 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| William Carrier L | 7:06 | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 17:05 | −0.27 | −0.00 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 12:47 | −0.29 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 22:17 | −0.29 | +0.01 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jack Eichel C | 20:32 | −0.30 | −0.23 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 61:48 | +1.09 |
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phillip Danault C | 17:33 | 1 | +1.05 | +0.23 | +0.78 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 11:56 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.11 | +0.67 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 26:25 | +0.17 | +0.16 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jacob de la Rose L | 9:25 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Torrey Mitchell C | 11:50 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 25:22 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Redmond D | 10:00 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 19:59 | −0.08 | +0.17 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 24:20 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.02 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Pacioretty L | 19:02 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.18 | −0.31 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brian Flynn C | 9:04 | −0.18 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Andrighetto R | 13:14 | −0.24 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 16:29 | 1 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Barberio D | 14:24 | −0.37 | −0.16 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 21:37 | −0.47 | −0.27 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Tomas Plekanec C | 16:22 | −0.54 | +0.04 | −0.49 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Andrew Shaw R | 15:53 | −0.69 | −0.39 | −0.30 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 16:36 | −0.84 | −0.35 | −0.63 | +0.01 | −0.03 | +0.17 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Carey Price G | 61:48 | +0.51 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.