EDM beat FLA 4–3 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (FLA 2.3, EDM 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Connor McDavid scored at 4:57 of overtime, moving EDM’s win probability from 52% to 100%. James Reimer allowed 1.9 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | FLA–EDM | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:10 | EDM | Zack Kassian from Connor McDavid | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 13:04 | EDM | Mark LetestuPP from Connor McDavid, Andrej Sekera | 0–2 | 71% → 84% |
| P1 17:13 | FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Reilly Smith, Keith Yandle | 1–2 | 15% → 29% |
| P2 18:35 | FLA | Michael SgarbossaPP from Jonathan Marchessault, Aaron Ekblad | 2–2 | 24% → 47% |
| P3 14:45 | FLA | Greg McKegg from Jaromir Jagr, Aaron Ekblad | 3–2 | 49% → 86% |
| P3 17:01 | EDM | Jordan Eberle from Ryan Nugent-Hopkins | 3–3 | 9% → 51% |
| OT 4:57 | EDM | Connor McDavid from Leon Draisaitl | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg McKegg C | 9:37 | 1 | +0.77 | +0.04 | +0.73 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 16:19 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.05 | +0.56 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Vincent Trocheck C | 23:48 | 1 | +0.35 | −0.26 | +0.63 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jaromir Jagr R | 16:04 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mike Matheson D | 26:27 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Thornton L | 7:50 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 16:25 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Dylan McIlrath D | 8:49 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Demers D | 21:54 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Pysyk D | 21:33 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 18:41 | −0.12 | −0.14 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jared McCann L | 14:07 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 21:08 | 1 | −0.19 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Thompson R | 7:11 | −0.20 | −0.01 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 18:06 | −0.20 | +0.01 | −0.23 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 23:38 | 2 | −0.24 | −0.02 | −0.24 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 20:40 | 1 | −0.32 | +0.00 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.04 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 20:27 | 1 | −0.72 | −0.18 | −0.55 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 64:57 | −1.86 |
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Eberle R | 19:11 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.03 | +0.79 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zack Kassian R | 10:55 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.01 | +0.75 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Letestu C | 11:15 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.03 | +0.64 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Connor McDavid C | 24:37 | 1 | 2 | +0.51 | +0.16 | +0.29 | +0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Adam Larsson D | 21:46 | +0.22 | +0.23 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 23:26 | 1 | +0.17 | +0.18 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 26:02 | +0.11 | +0.23 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Maroon L | 20:39 | +0.09 | +0.19 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 24:31 | +0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jujhar Khaira L | 2:45 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Drake Caggiula L | 13:18 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 23:22 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Davidson D | 13:52 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Slepyshev L | 9:18 | −0.15 | −0.03 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 18:02 | −0.17 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 14:11 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 21:14 | 1 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Eric Gryba D | 13:14 | −0.27 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 64:57 | −0.38 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.