CHI beat COL 6–4. CHI also won the expected-goals battle 1.9 to 1.0: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vinnie Hinostroza scored at 8:11 of the third, moving CHI’s win probability from 48% to 78%. Semyon Varlamov allowed 3.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CHI–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 2:38 | CHI | Nick Schmaltz unassisted | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:39 | COL | Matt DuchenePP from Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P1 12:50 | CHI | Brent Seabrook from Dennis Rasmussen, Nick Schmaltz | 2–1 | 47% → 64% |
| P2 9:03 | COL | Blake Comeau from Nathan MacKinnon, Mikhail Grigorenko | 2–2 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 10:06 | COL | Matt Nieto from Gabriel Landeskog | 2–3 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 10:25 | CHI | Tanner Kero from Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marian Hossa | 3–3 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 14:08 | COL | Matt Duchene from Tyson Barrie, Francois Beauchemin | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 5:10 | CHI | Vinnie Hinostroza from Brent Seabrook, Michal Kempny | 4–4 | 20% → 48% |
| P3 8:11 | CHI | Vinnie Hinostroza from Tanner Kero, Marian Hossa | 5–4 | 48% → 78% |
| P3 19:49 | CHI | Tanner KeroEN from Jonathan Toews, Marian Hossa | 6–4 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CHI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vinnie Hinostroza C | 11:08 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.17 | +1.37 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Kero C | 14:25 | 2 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.15 | +0.79 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 |
| Nick Schmaltz C | 9:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.05 | +0.73 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Brent Seabrook D | 19:28 | 1 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.10 | +0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Michal Kempny D | 17:08 | 1 | +0.18 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor van Riemsdyk D | 19:27 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.11 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marian Hossa R | 14:58 | 3 | +0.05 | +0.16 | −0.13 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Campbell D | 18:53 | +0.05 | +0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Niklas Hjalmarsson D | 21:47 | +0.05 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Desjardins L | 9:56 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Toews C | 18:18 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.06 | −0.06 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Hartman R | 12:14 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Duncan Keith D | 22:55 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dennis Rasmussen C | 10:14 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Artem Anisimov C | 18:43 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Artemi Panarin L | 21:26 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.08 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Kane R | 21:08 | −0.22 | −0.03 | −0.19 | +0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Richard Panik R | 13:03 | −0.29 | +0.03 | −0.15 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Corey Crawford G | 60:00 | −2.69 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 18:18 | 2 | +1.56 | +0.05 | +1.44 | +0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 14:10 | 1 | +0.96 | +0.01 | +0.80 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Blake Comeau L | 14:36 | 1 | +0.74 | −0.07 | +0.83 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 22:53 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.08 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.03 | |
| John Mitchell C | 11:43 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 25:29 | 2 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Fedor Tyutin D | 19:47 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 8:53 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rene Bourque R | 19:03 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 19:28 | 1 | −0.11 | −0.03 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Francois Beauchemin D | 25:12 | 1 | −0.12 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Carl Soderberg C | 13:17 | −0.13 | −0.20 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.07 | ||
| Eric Gelinas D | 14:39 | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Goloubef D | 16:40 | −0.13 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 14:10 | −0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 10:39 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jarome Iginla R | 8:46 | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 18:34 | −0.29 | −0.08 | −0.07 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 59:40 | −2.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.