PIT beat WSH 8–7 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (WSH 3.3, PIT 3.3), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Conor Sheary scored at 0:34 of overtime, moving PIT’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Matt Murray allowed 3.6 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WSH–PIT | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:06 | WSH | Andre Burakovsky from Daniel Winnik | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 17:09 | WSH | Nicklas Backstrom from T.J. Oshie, Alex Ovechkin | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 1:17 | WSH | Justin Williams from Evgeny Kuznetsov, Marcus Johansson | 3–0 | 81% → 93% |
| P2 6:28 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Trevor Daley, Justin Schultz | 3–1 | 6% → 17% |
| P2 7:12 | PIT | Conor Sheary from Sidney Crosby, Trevor Daley | 3–2 | 17% → 33% |
| P2 8:55 | PIT | Nick Bonino from Justin Schultz, Phil Kessel | 3–3 | 32% → 53% |
| P2 13:47 | PIT | Bryan Rust from Trevor Daley, Olli Maatta | 3–4 | 53% → 75% |
| P2 14:37 | PIT | Evgeni Malkin from Jake Guentzel, Justin Schultz | 3–5 | 75% → 90% |
| P2 15:07 | WSH | Brett Connolly from Taylor Chorney, Andre Burakovsky | 4–5 | 10% → 25% |
| P2 16:54 | WSH | Lars EllerSH from Nate Schmidt, T.J. Oshie | 5–5 | 23% → 47% |
| P2 17:19 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Patric Hornqvist, Sidney Crosby | 5–6 | 53% → 76% |
| P3 5:55 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Conor Sheary, Bryan Rust | 5–7 | 80% → 94% |
| P3 9:29 | WSH | T.J. OshiePP from Alex Ovechkin, Matt Niskanen | 6–7 | 4% → 17% |
| P3 14:38 | WSH | Lars Eller from Dmitry Orlov, Matt Niskanen | 7–7 | 12% → 49% |
| OT 0:34 | PIT | Conor Sheary from Sidney Crosby, Justin Schultz | 7–8 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lars Eller C | 13:22 | 2 | +1.65 | +0.20 | +1.47 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Connolly R | 13:07 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.15 | +0.63 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Williams R | 14:59 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.08 | +0.74 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Andre Burakovsky L | 12:02 | 1 | 1 | +0.58 | +0.16 | +0.43 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nicklas Backstrom C | 18:28 | 1 | +0.53 | −0.09 | +0.60 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| T.J. Oshie R | 20:06 | 1 | 2 | +0.30 | −0.02 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.17 | −0.02 |
| Nate Schmidt D | 16:33 | 1 | +0.13 | +0.10 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Daniel Winnik L | 11:33 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Brooks Orpik D | 20:03 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Chorney D | 12:02 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tom Wilson R | 12:00 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay Beagle C | 12:35 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Karl Alzner D | 17:55 | −0.10 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marcus Johansson L | 16:49 | 1 | −0.15 | −0.14 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dmitry Orlov D | 21:49 | 1 | −0.16 | −0.04 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Niskanen D | 26:42 | 2 | −0.23 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Ovechkin L | 20:51 | 2 | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.31 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Evgeny Kuznetsov C | 17:11 | 1 | −0.66 | −0.35 | −0.30 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Philipp Grubauer G | 25:57 | −1.88 |
| Braden Holtby G | 34:34 | −2.78 |
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 16:14 | 3 | +2.18 | +0.15 | +2.21 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | |
| Conor Sheary L | 17:38 | 2 | 1 | +1.30 | +0.14 | +1.17 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Sidney Crosby C | 18:59 | 1 | 3 | +0.75 | +0.20 | +0.48 | +0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Bryan Rust R | 14:53 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.06 | +0.68 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Nick Bonino C | 15:50 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Ian Cole D | 24:14 | +0.27 | +0.12 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 24:15 | 4 | +0.18 | +0.21 | −0.04 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Daley D | 24:08 | 3 | +0.08 | +0.12 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Guentzel C | 11:25 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chad Ruhwedel D | 13:35 | +0.03 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 7:03 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 18:00 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.13 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Chris Kunitz L | 10:44 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 17:33 | −0.07 | +0.07 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 11:54 | −0.10 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 13:14 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.14 | −0.30 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Olli Maatta D | 21:01 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | |
| David Warsofsky D | 12:08 | −0.36 | −0.13 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Matt Murray G | 60:34 | −3.59 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.