EDM beat BOS 4–3. EDM lost the expected-goals battle 1.5 to 3.9 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins scored at 0:14 of the third, moving EDM’s win probability from 48% to 73%. Tuukka Rask allowed 2.2 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | EDM–BOS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 1:08 | EDM | Patrick Maroon from Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl | 1–0 | 47% → 62% |
| P1 7:16 | BOS | Colin Miller from Austin Czarnik, Torey Krug | 1–1 | 37% → 53% |
| P2 10:43 | BOS | Patrice Bergeron from David Pastrnak, Kevan Miller | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P2 13:09 | EDM | Patrick Maroon from Eric Gryba, Connor McDavid | 2–2 | 25% → 47% |
| P3 0:14 | EDM | Ryan Nugent-Hopkins from Matt Benning | 3–2 | 48% → 73% |
| P3 9:02 | EDM | Patrick Maroon unassisted | 4–2 | 79% → 95% |
| P3 17:04 | BOS | David KrejciPP from Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand | 4–3 | 2% → 10% |
Every player
Show both lineups
EDM
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Maroon L | 17:00 | 3 | +2.14 | +0.07 | +2.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Nugent-Hopkins C | 19:16 | 1 | +0.26 | −0.35 | +0.63 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Drake Caggiula L | 8:35 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Kris Russell D | 23:24 | −0.03 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jesse Puljujarvi R | 3:27 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anton Lander C | 6:26 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Matt Benning D | 18:12 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jordan Eberle R | 13:23 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrej Sekera D | 23:31 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor McDavid C | 20:54 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.08 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.05 | |
| Mark Letestu C | 14:19 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Benoit Pouliot L | 14:12 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Zack Kassian R | 18:05 | −0.23 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Larsson D | 22:14 | −0.24 | −0.16 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leon Draisaitl C | 21:07 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.10 | −0.16 | +0.06 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Oscar Klefbom D | 17:09 | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Milan Lucic L | 19:10 | −0.32 | −0.23 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Gryba D | 13:37 | 1 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cam Talbot G | 60:00 | +0.55 |
BOS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Miller D | 21:51 | 1 | +0.80 | −0.07 | +0.88 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Krejci C | 20:34 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.14 | +0.28 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Patrice Bergeron C | 21:46 | 1 | 1 | +0.40 | +0.20 | +0.07 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.12 |
| Austin Czarnik C | 13:33 | 1 | +0.30 | +0.15 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Zdeno Chara D | 22:29 | +0.25 | +0.25 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam McQuaid D | 17:18 | +0.20 | +0.20 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torey Krug D | 21:41 | 1 | +0.16 | +0.16 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Carlo D | 16:00 | +0.10 | +0.08 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jimmy Hayes R | 10:36 | +0.04 | +0.09 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevan Miller D | 15:17 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Riley Nash C | 9:19 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| David Pastrnak R | 23:24 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.15 | −0.43 | +0.10 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Anton Blidh L | 6:57 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brad Marchand L | 22:56 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.24 | −0.51 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Ryan Spooner C | 15:06 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dominic Moore C | 11:42 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Frank Vatrano R | 15:52 | −0.20 | +0.07 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tim Schaller L | 12:59 | −0.40 | +0.15 | −0.54 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Tuukka Rask G | 58:40 | −2.21 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.