MTL beat FLA 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 2.7, FLA 2.5), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Phillip Danault scored at 0:39 of overtime, moving MTL’s win probability from 48% to 100%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:58 | FLA | Jason Demers from Jussi Jokinen, Jonathan Marchessault | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 5:45 | MTL | Max PaciorettyPP from Alexander Radulov, Nathan Beaulieu | 1–1 | 28% → 47% |
| P2 9:02 | FLA | Vincent TrocheckPP from Keith Yandle | 1–2 | 54% → 74% |
| P3 17:23 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Phillip Danault | 2–2 | 8% → 49% |
| OT 0:39 | MTL | Phillip Danault from Max Pacioretty | 3–2 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 18:08 | 1 | +0.80 | +0.03 | +0.79 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phillip Danault C | 16:21 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.09 | +0.61 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Max Pacioretty L | 21:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.47 | +0.11 | +0.37 | +0.03 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 |
| Michael McCarron C | 7:26 | +0.11 | +0.04 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 23:54 | 1 | +0.00 | +0.12 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 13:12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Radulov R | 16:55 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.08 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brian Flynn C | 13:12 | −0.02 | +0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tomas Plekanec C | 17:54 | −0.04 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Mark Barberio D | 13:32 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Petry D | 22:25 | −0.11 | +0.20 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ryan Johnston D | 11:44 | −0.12 | +0.07 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Terry L | 9:03 | −0.14 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Shea Weber D | 25:56 | −0.17 | −0.12 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 16:01 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Torrey Mitchell C | 16:00 | −0.28 | −0.15 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.06 | ||
| Alexei Emelin D | 23:29 | −0.33 | −0.22 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Carr L | 9:47 | −0.36 | +0.10 | −0.46 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 60:39 | +0.39 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck C | 21:45 | 1 | +1.01 | +0.07 | +0.59 | +0.03 | −0.01 | +0.35 | −0.01 | |
| Jason Demers D | 19:28 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.06 | +0.71 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Keith Yandle D | 23:16 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.09 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 20:11 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Colton Sceviour C | 15:46 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Michael Sgarbossa C | 10:25 | −0.04 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bjugstad C | 18:27 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.07 | ||
| Shawn Thornton L | 7:06 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 19:35 | 1 | −0.09 | +0.14 | −0.21 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Seth Griffith C | 15:47 | −0.11 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 18:11 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Denis Malgin C | 9:01 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.14 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jussi Jokinen L | 20:26 | 1 | −0.26 | +0.08 | −0.37 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jakub Kindl D | 16:13 | −0.27 | −0.11 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 13:28 | −0.27 | −0.08 | −0.25 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Paul Thompson R | 7:23 | −0.29 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 21:09 | −0.29 | −0.07 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Aaron Ekblad D | 20:29 | −0.33 | −0.04 | −0.31 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 60:39 | −0.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.