DET beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. DET lost the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 4.0 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Andreas Athanasiou scored at 1:59 of overtime, moving DET’s win probability from 48% to 100%. Petr Mrazek saved 1.3 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DET–CAR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 5:15 | CAR | Jeff Skinner from Jaccob Slavin, Lee Stempniak | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P2 9:04 |  DET | Anthony Mantha unassisted | 1–1 | 26% → 47% |
| P2 10:14 | DET | Anthony Mantha from Andreas Athanasiou, Danny DeKeyser | 2–1 | 47% → 68% |
| P2 19:02 | CAR | Justin Faulk from Jaccob Slavin, Derek Ryan | 2–2 | 28% → 52% |
| P3 8:30 | DET | Tomas TatarPP from Gustav Nyquist, Henrik Zetterberg | 3–2 | 49% → 79% |
| P3 19:08 | CAR | Justin FaulkPP from Noah Hanifin, Victor Rask | 3–3 | 5% → 50% |
| OT 1:59 | DET | Andreas Athanasiou from Gustav Nyquist | 4–3 | 48% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Mantha R | 15:42 | 2 | +1.24 | +0.12 | +1.10 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 14:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.70 | +0.08 | +0.65 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 |
| Tomas Tatar L | 17:23 | 1 | +0.33 | −0.00 | +0.33 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Danny DeKeyser D | 20:49 | 1 | +0.15 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Dan Renouf D | 13:35 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Gustav Nyquist R | 16:15 | 2 | +0.04 | +0.23 | −0.18 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Luke Glendening C | 1:35 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Robbie Russo D | 18:51 | −0.00 | −0.10 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 18:17 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Mike Green D | 24:49 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Jensen D | 18:54 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Miller L | 13:32 | −0.09 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 16:16 | −0.13 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Justin Abdelkader L | 20:52 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.27 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 20:46 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Xavier Ouellet D | 20:14 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 11:34 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 16:00 | −0.35 | +0.08 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.35 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 61:59 | +1.30 |
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Faulk D | 24:58 | 2 | +1.46 | +0.04 | +1.42 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Ryan C | 17:20 | 1 | +0.21 | +0.22 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Brock McGinn L | 12:25 | +0.17 | +0.04 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 25:16 | 2 | +0.14 | +0.17 | −0.05 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sebastian Aho C | 15:27 | +0.06 | +0.23 | −0.18 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Elias Lindholm C | 17:35 | +0.02 | +0.11 | −0.30 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.05 | ||
| Victor Rask C | 17:44 | 1 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Ryan Murphy D | 10:49 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 21:04 | 1 | −0.09 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 10:21 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lucas Wallmark C | 8:18 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Phillip Di Giuseppe L | 10:36 | −0.18 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 19:49 | 1 | −0.20 | +0.06 | −0.23 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Brett Pesce D | 20:48 | −0.22 | +0.01 | −0.24 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 14:14 | −0.28 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Lee Stempniak R | 17:27 | 1 | −0.42 | +0.11 | −0.53 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 19:04 | −0.53 | +0.02 | −0.41 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 18:54 | −0.73 | −0.15 | −0.41 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.04 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 60:48 | −1.15 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.