TOR beat PIT 2–1 in overtime. TOR also won the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Jake Gardiner scored at 2:00 of overtime, moving TOR’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen saved 1.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–TOR | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:51 | PIT | Evgeni MalkinPP from Justin Schultz, Sidney Crosby | 1–0 | 47% → 64% |
| P1 13:05 | TOR | Nikita Zaitsev from Mitch Marner, James van Riemsdyk | 1–1 | 36% → 53% |
| OT 2:00 | TOR | Jake Gardiner from Mitch Marner | 1–2 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evgeni Malkin C | 17:38 | 1 | +0.84 | +0.02 | +0.85 | +0.05 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Steve Oleksy D | 14:00 | +0.04 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 19:17 | +0.02 | +0.06 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 21:50 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 14:18 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 15:21 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 11:22 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 8:37 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 13:08 | −0.12 | −0.12 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 13:22 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:04 | 1 | −0.23 | −0.13 | −0.16 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 19:53 | −0.29 | −0.19 | −0.27 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.17 | −0.01 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 14:31 | −0.34 | −0.25 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 17:02 | −0.37 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 21:20 | −0.37 | −0.15 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Derrick Pouliot D | 19:19 | −0.46 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 13:55 | −0.46 | +0.02 | −0.49 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 23:03 | 1 | −0.78 | −0.26 | −0.31 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 52:45 | +0.99 |
| Matt Murray G | 9:15 | +0.45 |
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 20:40 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.16 | +0.86 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jake Gardiner D | 23:18 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.13 | +0.62 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 16:42 | 2 | +0.16 | +0.28 | −0.19 | +0.07 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 15:00 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 23:25 | +0.08 | +0.23 | −0.16 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Polak D | 16:12 | +0.07 | +0.13 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Martin L | 5:37 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Bozak C | 15:55 | +0.01 | +0.28 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Connor Carrick D | 16:24 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nazem Kadri C | 19:22 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.20 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Auston Matthews C | 20:13 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.04 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Matt Hunwick D | 14:36 | −0.10 | +0.00 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 17:57 | −0.10 | +0.08 | −0.18 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 15:33 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Zach Hyman L | 19:51 | −0.14 | +0.04 | −0.36 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Smith R | 10:07 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Nikita Soshnikov R | 9:48 | −0.30 | +0.13 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| William Nylander R | 18:09 | −0.56 | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 62:00 | +1.19 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.