LAK beat ARI 4–3. Expected goals were close to even (LAK 2.8, ARI 2.6), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Trevor Lewis scored at 15:55 of the third, moving LAK’s win probability from 49% to 88%. Mike Smith allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | LAK–ARI | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 0:15 | ARI | Martin HanzalPP from Radim Vrbata, Michael Stone | 0–1 | 54% → 69% |
| P1 12:25 | LAK | Dwight King from Dustin Brown, Anze Kopitar | 1–1 | 30% → 47% |
| P1 18:32 | ARI | Martin HanzalPP from Michael Stone, Oliver Ekman-Larsson | 1–2 | 54% → 71% |
| P2 10:14 | LAK | Jordan Nolan from Kyle Clifford, Nicholas Shore | 2–2 | 26% → 47% |
| P3 13:41 | LAK | Jordan Nolan unassisted | 3–2 | 49% → 85% |
| P3 13:50 | ARI | Tobias Rieder from Alex Goligoski, Jordan Martinook | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| P3 15:55 | LAK | Trevor Lewis from Marian Gaborik, Anze Kopitar | 4–3 | 49% → 88% |
Every player
Show both lineups
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Nolan C | 8:56 | 2 | +1.66 | +0.05 | +1.60 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Trevor Lewis C | 11:59 | 1 | +0.97 | +0.20 | +0.62 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Dwight King L | 14:42 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.07 | +0.80 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 20:59 | +0.32 | +0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 23:44 | 2 | +0.28 | +0.17 | −0.15 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.04 | |
| Kevin Gravel D | 9:45 | +0.10 | +0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Greene D | 9:29 | +0.09 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 23:14 | +0.08 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 7:55 | 1 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tanner Pearson L | 15:50 | +0.01 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alec Martinez D | 23:06 | −0.06 | +0.06 | −0.16 | +0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nicholas Shore C | 10:23 | 1 | −0.06 | +0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 27:38 | −0.14 | +0.14 | −0.27 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nic Dowd C | 12:58 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 15:14 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.15 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marian Gaborik R | 16:17 | 1 | −0.29 | +0.30 | −0.61 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Jeff Carter C | 18:14 | −0.32 | +0.16 | −0.21 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.17 | −0.06 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 19:07 | −0.45 | +0.16 | −0.26 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jeff Zatkoff G | 40:00 | +0.96 |
| Peter Budaj G | 20:00 | −1.32 |
ARI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tobias Rieder L | 17:25 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.01 | +0.50 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Hanzal C | 20:30 | 2 | +0.76 | −0.32 | +1.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.04 | |
| Jordan Martinook L | 17:39 | 1 | +0.32 | +0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.07 | |
| Luke Schenn D | 14:21 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Max Domi C | 20:56 | +0.01 | −0.20 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Connor Murphy D | 22:59 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Duclair L | 9:13 | −0.05 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jakob Chychrun D | 9:49 | −0.07 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Oliver Ekman-Larsson D | 25:06 | 1 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.12 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Lawson Crouse L | 9:49 | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Goligoski D | 23:07 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.23 | +0.01 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Christian Dvorak C | 10:01 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.15 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.08 | ||
| Ryan White C | 11:12 | −0.24 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.02 | ||
| Shane Doan R | 11:55 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.03 | ||
| Jamie McGinn L | 10:37 | −0.30 | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Laurent Dauphin C | 11:19 | −0.31 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Stone D | 24:48 | 2 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.11 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Radim Vrbata R | 18:51 | 1 | −0.89 | −0.29 | −0.40 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Mike Smith G | 58:08 | −1.28 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.