STL beat DAL 4–3 in overtime. STL also won the expected-goals battle 2.6 to 1.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Vladimir Tarasenko scored at 3:24 of overtime, moving STL’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Jake Allen allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | DAL–STL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 13:36 | STL | Robby Fabbri from Robert Bortuzzo, Jori Lehtera | 0–1 | 53% → 71% |
| P2 4:17 | STL | Alex PietrangeloPP from Patrik Berglund, Colton Parayko | 0–2 | 73% → 87% |
| P2 16:21 | DAL | Jamie Oleksiak from Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin | 1–2 | 10% → 24% |
| P3 1:47 | DAL | Jamie BennPP from Julius Honka, Jason Spezza | 2–2 | 23% → 48% |
| P3 13:12 | STL | David Perron from Jaden Schwartz, Jay Bouwmeester | 2–3 | 51% → 86% |
| P3 19:10 | DAL | Jamie OleksiakPP from Julius Honka, Jamie Benn | 3–3 | 4% → 50% |
| OT 3:24 | STL | Vladimir Tarasenko from Jori Lehtera, Kevin Shattenkirk | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
DAL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Oleksiak D | 22:27 | 2 | +1.71 | +0.04 | +1.69 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jamie Benn L | 22:27 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | −0.02 | +0.61 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 |
| Patrik Nemeth D | 16:48 | +0.21 | +0.02 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Antoine Roussel L | 16:24 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Julius Honka D | 16:58 | 2 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Patrick Eaves R | 15:12 | −0.02 | −0.07 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Shore C | 9:32 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordie Benn D | 19:02 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Cracknell R | 9:10 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Eakin C | 15:28 | −0.08 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Lauri Korpikoski L | 14:36 | −0.10 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Radek Faksa C | 16:31 | −0.12 | +0.07 | −0.33 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.02 | ||
| Esa Lindell D | 20:35 | −0.17 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brett Ritchie R | 14:01 | −0.21 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Sharp L | 18:29 | −0.23 | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Tyler Seguin C | 18:30 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.34 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| John Klingberg D | 22:56 | −0.51 | −0.32 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jason Spezza C | 14:15 | 1 | −0.64 | −0.23 | −0.25 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Antti Niemi G | 62:50 | −1.46 |
STL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Perron L | 20:18 | 1 | +0.79 | +0.21 | +0.77 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Alex Pietrangelo D | 28:01 | 1 | +0.68 | +0.01 | +0.65 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Vladimir Tarasenko R | 21:05 | 1 | +0.55 | −0.04 | +0.39 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Robby Fabbri C | 19:26 | 1 | +0.44 | +0.23 | +0.41 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Parayko D | 21:08 | 1 | +0.28 | +0.37 | −0.10 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Scottie Upshall R | 9:53 | +0.16 | +0.04 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaden Schwartz C | 21:43 | 1 | +0.10 | +0.03 | −0.11 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan Reaves R | 9:28 | +0.09 | +0.03 | −0.10 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Robert Bortuzzo D | 15:25 | 1 | +0.08 | +0.14 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Brodziak C | 11:38 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Gunnarsson D | 14:20 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ty Rattie R | 6:13 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Shattenkirk D | 18:33 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Paul Stastny C | 22:17 | −0.07 | +0.04 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Dmitrij Jaskin R | 11:23 | −0.09 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrik Berglund C | 14:58 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.02 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Jori Lehtera C | 18:07 | 2 | −0.17 | −0.03 | −0.15 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | |
| Jay Bouwmeester D | 22:01 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jake Allen G | 63:24 | −1.49 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.