WPG beat NSH 3–0. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 2.3 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Drew Stafford scored at 15:21 of the second, moving WPG’s win probability from 53% to 75%. Connor Hellebuyck saved 5.2 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NSH–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 15:21 | WPG | Drew Stafford from Jacob Trouba, Ben Chiarot | 0–1 | 53% → 75% |
| P3 19:18 | WPG | Mark ScheifeleEN from Blake Wheeler, Jacob Trouba | 0–2 | 97% → 100% |
| P3 19:50 | WPG | Adam LowryEN unassisted | 0–3 | 100% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NSH
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Irwin D | 16:46 | +0.23 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Roman Josi D | 25:47 | +0.22 | +0.51 | −0.20 | −0.27 | +0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Fiala L | 9:49 | +0.14 | +0.19 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mattias Ekholm D | 22:22 | +0.08 | +0.35 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Austin Watson L | 9:47 | +0.05 | +0.14 | −0.00 | −0.09 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Frederick Gaudreau C | 7:55 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Fisher C | 17:56 | −0.06 | +0.21 | −0.10 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | ||
| Pontus Aberg L | 9:09 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yannick Weber D | 11:43 | −0.17 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mike Ribeiro C | 18:27 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Ryan Johansen C | 21:29 | −0.22 | +0.25 | −0.28 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Anthony Bitetto D | 11:31 | −0.24 | −0.20 | +0.00 | −0.01 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| P.K. Subban D | 25:43 | −0.25 | −0.18 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Calle Jarnkrok C | 13:17 | −0.32 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.17 | −0.04 | ||
| Filip Forsberg L | 21:04 | −0.38 | −0.30 | −0.04 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Arvidsson L | 19:37 | −0.44 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Craig Smith C | 15:58 | −0.57 | −0.04 | −0.11 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.01 | ||
| Colin Wilson C | 15:20 | −0.59 | +0.28 | −0.62 | −0.10 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Juuse Saros G | 58:20 | +0.53 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stafford R | 15:56 | 1 | +0.43 | +0.25 | +0.22 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 24:03 | 1 | +0.19 | +0.14 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jacob Trouba D | 27:07 | 2 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.20 | +0.18 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Petan C | 14:18 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.00 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.06 | ||
| Paul Postma D | 9:50 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marko Dano C | 13:10 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 3:03 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 11:07 | −0.02 | +0.07 | −0.08 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 6:42 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 13:36 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 23:29 | 1 | −0.13 | +0.15 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 16:26 | −0.15 | −0.31 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Stuart D | 12:34 | −0.17 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 16:52 | 1 | −0.22 | −0.14 | −0.08 | −0.03 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 26:03 | −0.23 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 17:03 | −0.23 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.06 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 21:20 | 1 | −0.33 | −0.27 | −0.02 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 17:21 | −0.39 | −0.26 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +5.24 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.