SJS beat NYI 3–2. SJS also won the expected-goals battle 2.9 to 2.1: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Patrick Marleau scored at 19:37 of the third, moving SJS’s win probability from 51% to 97%.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NYI–SJS | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:59 | NYI | Anders LeePP from Josh Bailey, Nick Leddy | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:09 | SJS | Joe Pavelski from Chris Tierney, Matt Nieto | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P2 5:43 | SJS | Brent Burns from Kevin Labanc, Paul Martin | 1–2 | 53% → 73% |
| P3 19:02 | NYI | Nick LeddyPP from John Tavares, Brock Nelson | 2–2 | 5% → 50% |
| P3 19:37 | SJS | Patrick Marleau from Brent Burns, Paul Martin | 2–3 | 51% → 97% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NYI
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Leddy D | 23:05 | 1 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.11 | +0.78 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Anders Lee C | 15:55 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.13 | +0.78 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Hamonic D | 21:15 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Casey Cizikas C | 14:36 | +0.02 | +0.12 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Andrew Ladd L | 15:51 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.17 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cal Clutterbuck R | 14:38 | −0.03 | +0.11 | −0.33 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Brock Nelson C | 12:35 | 1 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Calvin de Haan D | 19:45 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johnny Boychuk D | 18:23 | −0.10 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Pelech D | 19:57 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Anthony Beauvillier R | 15:13 | −0.12 | −0.04 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolay Kulemin L | 12:33 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Bailey R | 16:34 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Chimera L | 16:07 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alan Quine C | 15:50 | −0.21 | −0.18 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Thomas Hickey D | 17:07 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Tavares C | 17:27 | 1 | −0.31 | +0.00 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | |
| Shane Prince L | 12:03 | −0.35 | −0.10 | −0.25 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Thomas Greiss G | 59:06 | −0.30 |
SJS
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent Burns D | 21:40 | 1 | 1 | +1.18 | +0.21 | +0.93 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Patrick Marleau C | 18:54 | 1 | +0.95 | +0.29 | +0.68 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Joe Pavelski C | 21:27 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.19 | +0.52 | +0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Justin Braun D | 19:09 | +0.11 | +0.10 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joonas Donskoi R | 16:00 | +0.06 | −0.10 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Martin D | 19:12 | 2 | +0.02 | +0.08 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tommy Wingels C | 3:10 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Marc-Edouard Vlasic D | 19:51 | −0.07 | −0.09 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Ward R | 17:33 | −0.07 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mikkel Boedker L | 12:55 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kevin Labanc R | 11:45 | 1 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Nieto L | 14:27 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.05 | −0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| David Schlemko D | 19:13 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tierney C | 15:54 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.10 | −0.29 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| Joe Thornton C | 19:17 | −0.25 | +0.31 | −0.59 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Brenden Dillon D | 19:56 | −0.26 | −0.02 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Logan Couture C | 19:03 | −0.35 | −0.28 | −0.07 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Micheal Haley L | 10:06 | −0.37 | −0.02 | −0.34 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Dell G | 60:00 | +0.23 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.