BUF beat PIT 2–1 in a shootout. BUF lost the expected-goals battle 2.7 to 3.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Sidney Crosby scored on the power play at 5:46 of the third, moving PIT’s win probability from 21% to 48%. Anders Nilsson saved 3.6 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:16 | BUF | William Carrier from Taylor Fedun | 0–1 | 53% → 70% |
| P3 5:46 | PIT | Sidney CrosbyPP from Chris Kunitz, Evgeni Malkin | 1–1 | 21% → 48% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:24 | 1 | +0.35 | +0.12 | +0.50 | +0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.31 | |
| Scott Wilson C | 10:36 | +0.34 | +0.18 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ian Cole D | 18:26 | +0.16 | +0.24 | −0.09 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 15:56 | +0.02 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 17:40 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.18 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nick Bonino C | 11:06 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Tom Kuhnhackl R | 7:44 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 19:10 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 15:22 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | +0.00 | ||
| Phil Kessel R | 21:14 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.19 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 20:11 | −0.20 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 10:37 | −0.26 | +0.10 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 19:33 | −0.27 | +0.13 | −0.02 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 10:01 | −0.33 | −0.03 | −0.31 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Hagelin L | 19:37 | −0.48 | +0.00 | −0.50 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Conor Sheary L | 17:01 | −0.50 | +0.08 | −0.39 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 30:15 | −0.56 | +0.11 | −0.38 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | −0.47 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 22:07 | 1 | −0.66 | +0.04 | −0.39 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.37 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 65:00 | +2.20 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs | Shootout |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cal O'Reilly C | 12:38 | +0.85 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +1.03 | ||
| William Carrier L | 5:50 | 1 | +0.59 | −0.16 | +0.76 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 20:09 | +0.15 | −0.16 | −0.24 | −0.02 | +0.04 | +0.52 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Fedun D | 15:21 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.25 | −0.22 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | |
| Cole Schneider L | 4:27 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 22:26 | −0.05 | +0.07 | −0.15 | −0.03 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Falk D | 9:56 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 21:30 | −0.07 | +0.11 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 24:22 | −0.13 | −0.07 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 13:10 | −0.14 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Moulson L | 13:56 | −0.20 | −0.06 | −0.12 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Okposo R | 21:41 | −0.24 | +0.18 | −0.33 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.05 | −0.31 | ||
| Josh Gorges D | 21:54 | −0.32 | −0.38 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 23:31 | −0.50 | −0.28 | −0.07 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 11:51 | −0.50 | −0.11 | −0.42 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 29:56 | −0.51 | −0.14 | −0.37 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 20:14 | −0.59 | −0.19 | −0.44 | +0.00 | +0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 19:59 | −1.31 | −0.09 | −0.67 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | −0.37 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Anders Nilsson G | 65:00 | +3.56 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.