Tonight: 8 gamesModel estimates, not official NHL statistics
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2016-11-17 · Rogers Arena

2 – 3Final/OT

VAN beat ARI 3–2 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 2.8 to 2.2: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Ben Hutton scored on the power play at 2:34 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%.

Shots on goal
36 – 42
Expected goals
2.2 – 2.8
xG share
VAN 56%
Home-ice start
VAN 53%

Win probability

The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.

ARI goalVAN goal

Expected goals

Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.

ARIVAN

Three stars, by the model

Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.

VAN
Brandon Sutter
1 G, 0 A · 23:15 TOI
Finishing +0.67 · Faceoffs +0.08
+0.75
VAN
62:34 TOI
GSAx +0.74
+0.74
VAN
1 G, 0 A · 21:02 TOI
On-ice +0.11 · Finishing +0.59
+0.69

Rough nights

ARI
Radim Vrbata
0 G, 0 A · 19:34 TOI
Finishing −0.61
−0.60
ARI
0 G, 0 A · 17:28 TOI
On-ice −0.17 · Finishing −0.13 · Faceoffs −0.09
−0.42
ARI
Martin Hanzal
0 G, 1 A · 20:08 TOI
Finishing −0.32 · Faceoffs −0.09
−0.41

Scoring

Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.

TimeTeamGoalARI–VANWin prob.
P2 1:22 ARIBrad Richardson
from Shane Doan, Jakob Chychrun
1–047% → 66%
P2 10:45 ARITony DeAngeloPP
from Martin Hanzal, Max Domi
2–069% → 85%
P2 15:45 VANBrandon Sutter
from Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler
2–113% → 29%
P2 17:58 VANDaniel SedinPP
from Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin
2–229% → 53%
OT 2:34 VANBen HuttonPP
unassisted
2–352% → 100%

Every player

Show both lineups

ARI

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Brad Richardson R8:421+0.61−0.01+0.75−0.01+0.01−0.17+0.04
Tony DeAngelo D19:021+0.59−0.10+0.70+0.02−0.03+0.00+0.00
Anthony Duclair L13:04+0.16−0.01−0.02+0.02+0.00+0.17+0.00
Connor Murphy D20:59−0.04−0.07+0.01+0.00+0.02+0.00+0.00
Alex Goligoski D19:53−0.06+0.02−0.09+0.03−0.01+0.00+0.00
Lawson Crouse L12:04−0.08−0.05−0.03−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Jakob Chychrun D17:261−0.09−0.09+0.01+0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Ryan White C11:31−0.09−0.08−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Shane Doan R15:511−0.11−0.11−0.00+0.01+0.01+0.00−0.01
Max Domi C18:401−0.12−0.13−0.08+0.09+0.00+0.00+0.00
Laurent Dauphin C15:55−0.12−0.07−0.02−0.01−0.02+0.00−0.01
Michael Stone D20:21−0.29−0.06−0.05−0.00−0.00−0.17+0.00
Oliver Ekman-Larsson D24:53−0.33−0.21−0.14+0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Dylan Strome C15:10−0.37−0.15−0.19+0.02−0.01+0.00−0.03
Jamie McGinn L14:03−0.41−0.07−0.31−0.01−0.01+0.00−0.01
Martin Hanzal C20:081−0.41−0.02−0.32+0.01+0.01+0.00−0.09
Jordan Martinook L17:28−0.42−0.17−0.13−0.02−0.01+0.00−0.09
Radim Vrbata R19:34−0.60+0.02−0.61+0.00−0.01+0.00−0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Louis Domingue G62:34+0.24

VAN

SkaterTOIGANet goalsOn-iceFinishingPlaymakingSuppressionPenaltiesFaceoffs
Brandon Sutter C23:151+0.75+0.03+0.67−0.05+0.02+0.00+0.08
Ben Hutton D21:021+0.69+0.11+0.59−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Daniel Sedin L20:1911+0.48+0.03+0.57+0.04+0.01−0.17+0.00
Henrik Sedin C20:201+0.44+0.45−0.07+0.07−0.01+0.00+0.00
Loui Eriksson L17:39+0.04+0.10−0.07−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Michael Chaput C9:57+0.04+0.04−0.04−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.06
Erik Gudbranson D21:01+0.03+0.09−0.04−0.02+0.00+0.00+0.00
Markus Granlund C17:15−0.00+0.07−0.03−0.02+0.01+0.00−0.02
Derek Dorsett R1:42−0.00+0.00−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Nikita Tryamkin D15:44−0.02+0.03−0.03−0.01−0.01+0.00+0.00
Brendan Gaunce C5:31−0.03−0.02−0.00−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Luca Sbisa D17:31−0.03−0.03+0.01−0.01−0.00+0.00+0.00
Sven Baertschi L17:43−0.03+0.09−0.11−0.01+0.00+0.00+0.00
Alexander Edler D24:342−0.11+0.26−0.55+0.01−0.01+0.17+0.00
Jack Skille R11:44−0.16−0.03−0.12−0.01+0.01+0.00+0.00
Troy Stecher D22:06−0.19+0.10−0.30−0.01+0.02+0.00+0.00
Bo Horvat C19:08−0.19+0.05−0.16+0.00−0.01−0.17+0.10
Alexandre Burrows R18:07−0.25+0.05−0.45−0.01−0.00+0.17−0.01
GoalieTOIGSAx (net goals)
Jacob Markstrom G62:34+0.74

Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.