WPG beat DET 5–3. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 1.8 to 2.3 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Brandon Tanev scored at 18:44 of the third, moving WPG’s win probability from 50% to 95%. Petr Mrazek allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–DET | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 3:04 | DET | Luke Glendening from Danny DeKeyser, Mike Green | 0–1 | 53% → 69% |
| P1 15:30 | WPG | Patrik Laine from Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele | 1–1 | 29% → 47% |
| P2 9:40 | DET | Henrik Zetterberg from Tomas Tatar | 1–2 | 53% → 74% |
| P3 2:01 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Patrik Laine, Nikolaj Ehlers | 2–2 | 22% → 48% |
| P3 10:48 | DET | Justin Abdelkader from Tomas Tatar, Henrik Zetterberg | 2–3 | 52% → 84% |
| P3 12:24 | WPG | Brandon Tanev from Nikolaj Ehlers, Mark Scheifele | 3–3 | 15% → 49% |
| P3 18:44 | WPG | Brandon Tanev from Dustin Byfuglien, Marko Dano | 4–3 | 50% → 95% |
| P3 19:54 | WPG | Nikolaj EhlersEN from Blake Wheeler | 5–3 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Tanev L | 15:08 | 2 | +1.73 | +0.09 | +1.64 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 17:53 | 1 | 2 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.57 | +0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.02 |
| Patrik Laine L | 15:37 | 1 | 1 | +0.50 | −0.01 | +0.51 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Toby Enstrom D | 23:32 | +0.24 | +0.24 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 17:48 | 1 | 3 | +0.06 | +0.07 | −0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Julian Melchiori D | 14:18 | +0.05 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 14:58 | +0.03 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Postma D | 17:32 | −0.00 | +0.13 | −0.14 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Marko Dano C | 11:58 | 1 | −0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 14:00 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 28:12 | 1 | −0.05 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Petan C | 16:24 | −0.09 | +0.06 | −0.14 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andrew Copp C | 9:53 | −0.09 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.07 | ||
| Ben Chiarot D | 14:32 | −0.11 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 9:01 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.06 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 12:04 | −0.14 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 18:45 | 1 | −0.15 | +0.04 | −0.25 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Josh Morrissey D | 22:26 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Connor Hellebuyck G | 60:00 | +0.12 |
DET
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Glendening C | 9:33 | 1 | +0.75 | −0.07 | +0.81 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Justin Abdelkader L | 18:06 | 1 | +0.65 | −0.12 | +0.76 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Zetterberg C | 22:00 | 1 | 1 | +0.60 | −0.13 | +0.66 | +0.05 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Gustav Nyquist R | 18:48 | +0.02 | −0.05 | −0.11 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Ericsson D | 18:47 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexey Marchenko D | 18:18 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Miller L | 8:49 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Andreas Athanasiou C | 14:55 | −0.09 | +0.04 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brendan Smith D | 17:56 | −0.11 | +0.09 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Danny DeKeyser D | 20:07 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tomas Tatar L | 19:32 | 2 | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | |
| Niklas Kronwall D | 18:14 | −0.18 | +0.07 | −0.21 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Darren Helm C | 14:26 | −0.18 | +0.11 | −0.29 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Steve Ott C | 9:11 | −0.19 | −0.04 | −0.15 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Riley Sheahan C | 12:56 | −0.21 | +0.08 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dylan Larkin C | 19:23 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.12 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Frans Nielsen C | 15:07 | −0.30 | −0.05 | −0.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Mike Green D | 24:12 | 1 | −0.39 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Petr Mrazek G | 59:40 | −1.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.