LAK beat PIT 3–2 in overtime. Expected goals were close to even (PIT 2.0, LAK 1.8), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Nic Dowd scored at 2:37 of overtime, moving LAK’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Marc-Andre Fleury allowed 1.4 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | PIT–LAK | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 7:28 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Patric Hornqvist, Kris Letang | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 5:25 | LAK | Trevor Lewis from Kyle Clifford, Alec Martinez | 1–1 | 33% → 53% |
| P3 2:14 | LAK | Matt Greene from Jeff Carter | 1–2 | 52% → 78% |
| P3 9:28 | PIT | Sidney Crosby from Kris Letang | 2–2 | 17% → 48% |
| OT 2:37 | LAK | Nic Dowd from Tanner Pearson, Alec Martinez | 2–3 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
PIT
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sidney Crosby C | 20:25 | 2 | +1.94 | +0.19 | +1.55 | +0.06 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.03 | |
| Carl Hagelin L | 19:16 | +0.11 | +0.24 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Trevor Daley D | 21:03 | +0.11 | +0.10 | −0.02 | +0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Olli Maatta D | 21:07 | +0.07 | +0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Eric Fehr C | 10:33 | +0.07 | +0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Dumoulin D | 18:15 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Bonino C | 17:47 | +0.02 | +0.07 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Kris Letang D | 26:52 | 2 | +0.02 | −0.06 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Ian Cole D | 17:50 | +0.01 | +0.04 | −0.03 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Bryan Rust R | 14:50 | +0.00 | +0.03 | −0.02 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Matt Cullen C | 11:04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Tom Sestito L | 5:06 | −0.04 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Justin Schultz D | 13:31 | −0.04 | +0.02 | −0.06 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Scott Wilson C | 13:19 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Kunitz L | 16:08 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evgeni Malkin C | 19:20 | −0.34 | −0.16 | −0.15 | +0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Patric Hornqvist R | 18:17 | 1 | −0.45 | +0.09 | −0.56 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Phil Kessel R | 19:20 | −0.71 | −0.18 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.35 | −0.01 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Marc-Andre Fleury G | 62:37 | −1.44 |
LAK
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Lewis C | 11:29 | 1 | +0.87 | +0.06 | +0.84 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nic Dowd C | 15:57 | 1 | +0.83 | −0.01 | +0.79 | −0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.07 | |
| Matt Greene D | 9:42 | 1 | +0.76 | +0.02 | +0.92 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Alec Martinez D | 25:01 | 2 | +0.21 | +0.17 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kevin Gravel D | 13:25 | +0.17 | +0.02 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Anze Kopitar C | 21:40 | +0.07 | −0.19 | −0.18 | +0.01 | +0.02 | +0.35 | +0.06 | ||
| Nicholas Shore C | 11:16 | +0.06 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Muzzin D | 24:52 | +0.03 | +0.07 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Clifford L | 9:37 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.05 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Dwight King L | 14:56 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Toffoli C | 14:54 | −0.14 | −0.04 | −0.12 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Teddy Purcell L | 15:44 | −0.14 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Dustin Brown R | 15:56 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.12 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tanner Pearson L | 17:12 | 1 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Derek Forbort D | 22:55 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Devin Setoguchi R | 15:15 | −0.22 | −0.05 | −0.17 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Carter C | 16:23 | 1 | −0.34 | −0.11 | −0.21 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Drew Doughty D | 27:58 | −0.71 | −0.35 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Peter Budaj G | 62:30 | −0.36 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.