FLA beat NJD 4–3 in overtime. FLA lost the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Vincent Trocheck scored at 4:16 of overtime, moving FLA’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Cory Schneider allowed 1.5 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | NJD–FLA | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 12:58 | FLA | Aaron EkbladPP from Keith Yandle, Jonathan Marchessault | 0–1 | 54% → 70% |
| P2 6:44 | FLA | Denis MalginPP from Jason Demers, Colton Sceviour | 0–2 | 74% → 87% |
| P2 18:04 | NJD | Travis ZajacPP from Kyle Palmieri, Damon Severson | 1–2 | 9% → 24% |
| P3 4:29 | FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Jaromir Jagr, Mark Pysyk | 1–3 | 79% → 94% |
| P3 4:49 | NJD | PA Parenteau from John Moore, Nick Lappin | 2–3 | 6% → 21% |
| P3 16:05 | NJD | Pavel Zacha from Beau Bennett, Damon Severson | 3–3 | 10% → 49% |
| OT 4:16 | FLA | Vincent Trocheck from Reilly Smith | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
NJD
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PA Parenteau R | 15:07 | 1 | +0.73 | +0.08 | +0.67 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Travis Zajac C | 19:14 | 1 | +0.67 | +0.06 | +0.59 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.04 | |
| Pavel Zacha C | 17:13 | 1 | +0.56 | +0.04 | +0.75 | −0.01 | −0.01 | −0.17 | −0.04 | |
| Vernon Fiddler C | 13:10 | +0.35 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.01 | ||
| Beau Bennett R | 11:16 | 1 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Andy Greene D | 23:27 | +0.08 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nick Lappin R | 11:35 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Damon Severson D | 21:56 | 2 | −0.01 | +0.12 | −0.08 | −0.03 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Sergey Kalinin C | 13:06 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Yohann Auvitu D | 19:05 | −0.08 | +0.00 | −0.07 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Quincey D | 13:58 | −0.08 | −0.09 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Michael Cammalleri L | 20:12 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.11 | +0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| John Moore D | 19:15 | 1 | −0.17 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Devante Smith-Pelly R | 14:00 | −0.22 | +0.10 | −0.32 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ben Lovejoy D | 20:55 | −0.23 | −0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Taylor Hall L | 22:17 | −0.35 | +0.03 | −0.42 | +0.04 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Adam Henrique C | 16:21 | −0.38 | +0.06 | −0.27 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Palmieri C | 14:09 | 1 | −0.49 | −0.09 | −0.24 | +0.00 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Cory Schneider G | 63:48 | −1.52 |
FLA
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Trocheck C | 22:48 | 2 | +1.86 | +0.13 | +1.29 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.35 | +0.08 | |
| Denis Malgin C | 11:07 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.12 | +0.76 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Aaron Ekblad D | 24:31 | 1 | +0.59 | +0.03 | +0.71 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Pysyk D | 18:23 | 1 | +0.13 | −0.07 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Jason Demers D | 18:39 | 1 | +0.06 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Kyle Rau C | 8:52 | +0.03 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Keith Yandle D | 21:52 | 1 | +0.01 | +0.06 | −0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Colton Sceviour C | 19:34 | 1 | −0.00 | +0.04 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Shane Harper R | 9:19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaromir Jagr R | 16:54 | 1 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Reilly Smith R | 22:35 | 1 | −0.03 | +0.10 | −0.14 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Jared McCann L | 7:38 | −0.04 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Mike Matheson D | 20:03 | −0.12 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jonathan Marchessault C | 17:51 | 1 | −0.24 | −0.09 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Greg McKegg C | 10:12 | −0.29 | −0.05 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.03 | ||
| Alexander Petrovic D | 21:20 | −0.35 | −0.15 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek MacKenzie C | 13:05 | −0.36 | −0.05 | −0.30 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Aleksander Barkov C | 18:54 | −0.46 | −0.14 | −0.32 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.03 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| James Reimer G | 64:07 | −0.43 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.