WPG beat COL 1–0. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 1.7 to 3.1 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Shawn Matthias scored at 8:29 of the second, moving WPG’s win probability from 47% to 68%. Michael Hutchinson saved 5.1 goals above expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | WPG–COL | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P2 8:29 | WPG | Shawn Matthias from Joel Armia, Josh Morrissey | 1–0 | 47% → 68% |
Every player
Show both lineups
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Stuart D | 11:43 | +0.13 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Shawn Matthias L | 12:55 | 1 | +0.11 | −0.22 | +0.37 | −0.03 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Joel Armia R | 16:41 | 1 | +0.04 | −0.13 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 11:09 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 12:40 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Chris Thorburn R | 11:22 | −0.07 | +0.05 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 10:47 | −0.07 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Toby Enstrom D | 23:34 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mathieu Perreault C | 12:08 | −0.09 | −0.03 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.02 | ||
| Adam Lowry C | 18:07 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.13 | −0.03 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Tyler Myers D | 27:19 | −0.24 | −0.19 | +0.00 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 19:35 | −0.26 | −0.29 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 11:59 | −0.31 | −0.06 | −0.10 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 10:27 | −0.32 | −0.00 | −0.31 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mark Scheifele C | 18:44 | −0.35 | −0.22 | −0.00 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 16:34 | 1 | −0.40 | −0.26 | −0.02 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Patrik Laine L | 21:47 | −0.41 | −0.19 | −0.15 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 26:25 | −0.81 | −0.30 | −0.12 | −0.03 | −0.02 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 60:00 | +5.08 |
COL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Duchene C | 17:24 | +0.38 | +0.27 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.08 | ||
| Mikko Rantanen R | 18:16 | +0.26 | +0.22 | −0.05 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Nikita Zadorov D | 18:30 | +0.22 | +0.15 | −0.01 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Nathan MacKinnon C | 20:12 | +0.11 | +0.36 | −0.39 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyson Barrie D | 24:15 | +0.09 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.09 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| John Mitchell C | 11:58 | +0.03 | +0.08 | −0.02 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | ||
| Eric Gelinas D | 12:46 | +0.03 | +0.10 | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Erik Johnson D | 23:24 | +0.01 | +0.23 | −0.09 | −0.11 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joe Colborne C | 10:08 | +0.01 | +0.15 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Jarome Iginla R | 15:19 | −0.03 | +0.16 | −0.15 | −0.06 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Andreas Martinsen L | 11:36 | −0.07 | +0.08 | −0.12 | −0.04 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Carl Soderberg C | 13:48 | −0.11 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.05 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.05 | ||
| Gabriel Landeskog L | 16:33 | −0.13 | +0.18 | −0.20 | −0.10 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Francois Beauchemin D | 18:13 | −0.14 | +0.09 | +0.00 | −0.06 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Patrick Wiercioch D | 19:09 | −0.16 | −0.11 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Rene Bourque R | 15:15 | −0.18 | −0.02 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Mikhail Grigorenko C | 16:37 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.14 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Blake Comeau L | 12:11 | −0.43 | +0.08 | −0.14 | −0.02 | −0.00 | −0.35 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Semyon Varlamov G | 58:26 | +0.98 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.