WPG beat TOR 5–4 in overtime. WPG lost the expected-goals battle 3.1 to 3.7 and won anyway, a result the shot quality did not support. The biggest swing: Patrik Laine scored at 2:40 of overtime, moving WPG’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Frederik Andersen allowed 2.1 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | TOR–WPG | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 6:46 |  TOR | Connor Carrick from James van Riemsdyk, Mitch Marner | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P1 16:12 | TOR | Nazem Kadri from Morgan Rielly, Milan Michalek | 2–0 | 65% → 79% |
| P2 6:47 | TOR | William NylanderPP from Auston Matthews, Nikita Zaitsev | 3–0 | 87% → 95% |
| P2 6:55 | TOR | Nazem KadriPP from William Nylander, Leo Komarov | 4–0 | 95% → 99% |
| P2 13:04 | WPG | Tyler Myers from Mark Scheifele, Shawn Matthias | 4–1 | 1% → 4% |
| P3 1:00 | WPG | Patrik Laine from Dustin Byfuglien, Mark Scheifele | 4–2 | 2% → 10% |
| P3 6:05 | WPG | Mark Scheifele from Josh Morrissey, Drew Stafford | 4–3 | 7% → 24% |
| P3 19:05 | WPG | Patrik LainePP from Nikolaj Ehlers | 4–4 | 6% → 50% |
| OT 2:40 | WPG | Patrik Laine from Dustin Byfuglien | 4–5 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
TOR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nazem Kadri C | 16:54 | 2 | +1.36 | −0.04 | +1.42 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.03 | |
| William Nylander R | 16:30 | 1 | 1 | +0.98 | +0.32 | +0.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.04 |
| Connor Carrick D | 13:24 | 1 | +0.65 | +0.07 | +0.58 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Tyler Bozak C | 14:49 | +0.13 | +0.23 | −0.11 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Jake Gardiner D | 13:46 | +0.10 | +0.27 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Nikita Zaitsev D | 24:33 | 1 | +0.07 | +0.07 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Connor Brown R | 12:50 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Morgan Rielly D | 24:41 | 1 | −0.01 | +0.14 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Matt Hunwick D | 20:19 | −0.07 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Leo Komarov R | 17:52 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | |
| Milan Michalek L | 15:39 | 1 | −0.13 | −0.09 | −0.04 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Martin Marincin D | 24:47 | −0.15 | +0.02 | −0.15 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Peter Holland C | 12:38 | −0.20 | +0.03 | −0.22 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Zach Hyman L | 16:30 | −0.21 | +0.06 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| James van Riemsdyk L | 14:41 | 1 | −0.22 | +0.18 | −0.39 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Mitch Marner R | 14:47 | 1 | −0.28 | −0.01 | −0.15 | +0.05 | +0.01 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Auston Matthews C | 17:57 | 1 | −0.43 | +0.25 | −0.84 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.03 | |
| Matt Martin L | 11:18 | −0.46 | +0.03 | −0.48 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Frederik Andersen G | 62:40 | −2.06 |
WPG
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrik Laine L | 18:48 | 3 | +2.37 | −0.19 | +2.38 | +0.02 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mark Scheifele C | 20:55 | 1 | 2 | +0.89 | −0.04 | +0.69 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.17 | +0.03 |
| Tyler Myers D | 26:44 | 1 | +0.62 | −0.30 | +0.75 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Adam Lowry C | 15:06 | +0.04 | +0.05 | −0.00 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Paul Postma D | 8:54 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Joel Armia R | 13:15 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | ||
| Josh Morrissey D | 19:12 | 1 | −0.08 | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ben Chiarot D | 10:53 | −0.13 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brandon Tanev L | 12:00 | −0.14 | −0.09 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Burmistrov C | 13:38 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.05 | ||
| Nikolaj Ehlers L | 14:41 | 1 | −0.21 | −0.05 | −0.18 | +0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Toby Enstrom D | 25:18 | −0.22 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Kyle Connor L | 15:15 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.19 | −0.00 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Drew Stafford R | 13:33 | 1 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Dustin Byfuglien D | 27:02 | 2 | −0.31 | −0.12 | −0.01 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Shawn Matthias L | 13:03 | 1 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Mathieu Perreault C | 16:36 | −0.50 | −0.06 | −0.50 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.08 | ||
| Blake Wheeler R | 20:40 | −0.70 | −0.03 | −0.71 | +0.05 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Michael Hutchinson G | 61:59 | +0.44 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.