VAN beat CAR 4–3 in overtime. VAN also won the expected-goals battle 2.1 to 1.8: the better chances went the right way. The biggest swing: Brandon Sutter scored at 0:32 of overtime, moving VAN’s win probability from 52% to 100%. Eddie Lack allowed 1.3 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | CAR–VAN | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 17:36 | CAR | Victor Rask from Lee Stempniak | 1–0 | 47% → 65% |
| P1 19:10 | CAR | Teuvo TeravainenPP from Justin Faulk, Sebastian Aho | 2–0 | 66% → 80% |
| P2 5:28 | CAR | Justin Faulk from Joakim Nordstrom | 3–0 | 82% → 94% |
| P2 12:03 | VAN | Bo Horvat from Markus Granlund | 3–1 | 5% → 15% |
| P3 1:11 | VAN | Markus Granlund from Jannik Hansen, Brandon Sutter | 3–2 | 10% → 27% |
| P3 14:10 | VAN | Ben Hutton from Derek Dorsett, Brendan Gaunce | 3–3 | 15% → 51% |
| OT 0:32 | VAN | Brandon Sutter unassisted | 3–4 | 52% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
CAR
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Rask C | 18:50 | 1 | +0.70 | −0.12 | +0.81 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | |
| Teuvo Teravainen C | 11:05 | 1 | +0.67 | −0.04 | +0.70 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Justin Faulk D | 21:52 | 1 | 1 | +0.57 | +0.01 | +0.57 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Lee Stempniak R | 17:54 | 1 | +0.03 | +0.03 | −0.00 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Bryan Bickell L | 13:31 | +0.02 | +0.04 | −0.00 | −0.02 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jaccob Slavin D | 20:12 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Ron Hainsey D | 22:46 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jordan Staal C | 15:57 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Klas Dahlbeck D | 13:23 | −0.09 | −0.08 | +0.01 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jay McClement C | 15:37 | −0.10 | −0.01 | −0.05 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | −0.03 | ||
| Brett Pesce D | 23:33 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jeff Skinner L | 18:51 | −0.12 | +0.04 | −0.30 | +0.00 | −0.02 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Sebastian Aho C | 12:51 | 1 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrej Nestrasil C | 12:25 | −0.15 | −0.02 | −0.13 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Noah Hanifin D | 15:48 | −0.18 | −0.04 | −0.13 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Viktor Stalberg L | 12:18 | −0.19 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Joakim Nordstrom C | 14:25 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.04 | −0.18 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.01 | |
| Elias Lindholm C | 16:25 | −0.27 | −0.10 | −0.18 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lack G | 60:25 | −1.31 |
VAN
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Hutton D | 20:00 | 1 | +1.03 | +0.17 | +0.87 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Brandon Sutter C | 17:13 | 1 | 1 | +0.85 | +0.14 | +0.67 | −0.03 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.06 |
| Markus Granlund C | 16:06 | 1 | 1 | +0.75 | +0.13 | +0.63 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Bo Horvat C | 16:05 | 1 | +0.69 | −0.01 | +0.61 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.07 | |
| Erik Gudbranson D | 17:17 | +0.12 | +0.04 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexander Edler D | 24:16 | +0.05 | +0.10 | −0.05 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Chris Tanev D | 19:10 | +0.03 | +0.01 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Alexandre Burrows R | 10:21 | +0.01 | +0.02 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Luca Sbisa D | 16:31 | −0.02 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jake Virtanen R | 11:52 | −0.06 | +0.01 | −0.06 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Philip Larsen D | 21:10 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sven Baertschi L | 15:36 | −0.11 | +0.06 | −0.16 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Sedin L | 18:21 | −0.11 | −0.07 | −0.07 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Loui Eriksson L | 20:01 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Jannik Hansen R | 15:05 | 1 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.34 | +0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Derek Dorsett R | 9:52 | 1 | −0.24 | +0.07 | −0.31 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Henrik Sedin C | 18:53 | −0.26 | −0.12 | −0.00 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Brendan Gaunce C | 10:46 | 1 | −0.28 | +0.07 | −0.14 | −0.01 | −0.00 | −0.17 | −0.02 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Jacob Markstrom G | 60:23 | −1.05 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.