MTL beat BUF 4–1. Expected goals were close to even (MTL 1.9, BUF 2.2), so the finishing and the goaltending decided it. The biggest swing: Brendan Gallagher scored at 8:43 of the first, moving MTL’s win probability from 47% to 63%. Robin Lehner allowed 2.0 goals more than expected.
Win probability
The site’s win-probability model, second by second: score, time left and the manpower on the ice. Dots are goals; hover for the swing.
Expected goals
Running total of each team’s shot quality (unblocked attempts). Dots are goals.
Three stars, by the model
Net goals added in this game versus a league-average player: on-ice goal share, finishing, playmaking, suppression, drawn and taken penalties, faceoffs; goalies by goals saved above expected.
Rough nights
Scoring
Win probability of the scoring team just before and after each goal.
| Time | Team | Goal | MTL–BUF | Win prob. |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P1 8:43 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Max Pacioretty | 1–0 | 47% → 63% |
| P2 3:21 | MTL | Torrey Mitchell from Paul Byron, Phillip Danault | 2–0 | 66% → 81% |
| P3 0:35 | BUF | Matt MoulsonPP from Sam Reinhart, Rasmus Ristolainen | 2–1 | 11% → 27% |
| P3 6:43 | MTL | Brendan Gallagher from Shea Weber, Alex Galchenyuk | 3–1 | 77% → 93% |
| P3 11:36 | MTL | Andrew Shaw from Daniel Carr, David Desharnais | 4–1 | 97% → 100% |
Every player
Show both lineups
MTL
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Gallagher R | 14:50 | 2 | +1.81 | −0.04 | +1.70 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Andrew Shaw R | 13:55 | 1 | +0.74 | +0.00 | +0.58 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Torrey Mitchell C | 11:04 | 1 | +0.69 | +0.04 | +0.66 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Andrei Markov D | 22:35 | +0.06 | +0.10 | −0.07 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Greg Pateryn D | 22:46 | +0.04 | +0.10 | −0.08 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| David Desharnais C | 12:14 | 1 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Tomas Plekanec C | 18:05 | −0.01 | +0.09 | −0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | −0.09 | ||
| Mikhail Sergachev D | 11:48 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Paul Byron L | 12:56 | 1 | −0.02 | +0.06 | −0.06 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Alexei Emelin D | 21:07 | −0.04 | +0.00 | −0.03 | −0.01 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Phillip Danault C | 12:06 | 1 | −0.05 | +0.06 | −0.04 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.06 | |
| Max Pacioretty L | 16:58 | 1 | −0.07 | −0.05 | −0.01 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Shea Weber D | 24:04 | 1 | −0.12 | +0.04 | +0.01 | −0.01 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Alexander Radulov R | 15:45 | −0.13 | +0.07 | −0.04 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Daniel Carr L | 11:04 | 1 | −0.16 | +0.03 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | |
| Nathan Beaulieu D | 17:46 | −0.16 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Alex Galchenyuk C | 16:43 | 1 | −0.41 | −0.06 | −0.16 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.01 | |
| Artturi Lehkonen L | 16:30 | −0.50 | +0.08 | −0.59 | −0.01 | +0.02 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Al Montoya G | 60:00 | +1.33 |
BUF
| Skater | TOI | G | A | Net goals | On-ice | Finishing | Playmaking | Suppression | Penalties | Faceoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moulson L | 11:29 | 1 | +0.62 | +0.00 | +0.63 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Ryan O'Reilly C | 22:44 | +0.35 | −0.08 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.01 | +0.35 | +0.07 | ||
| Johan Larsson L | 17:36 | +0.06 | +0.01 | −0.15 | −0.02 | +0.02 | +0.17 | +0.03 | ||
| Zemgus Girgensons C | 11:39 | +0.03 | −0.03 | −0.08 | −0.05 | −0.00 | +0.17 | +0.01 | ||
| Jake McCabe D | 22:11 | +0.01 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Evander Kane L | 12:43 | −0.03 | +0.05 | −0.11 | +0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.02 | ||
| Casey Nelson D | 11:47 | −0.04 | −0.02 | +0.01 | −0.02 | −0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Derek Grant C | 13:55 | −0.06 | −0.05 | −0.00 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Josh Gorges D | 18:06 | −0.07 | −0.10 | +0.01 | −0.02 | +0.05 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Brian Gionta R | 15:52 | −0.08 | −0.09 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.02 | +0.00 | −0.01 | ||
| Zach Bogosian D | 22:21 | −0.09 | +0.03 | −0.12 | −0.00 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Hudson Fasching R | 10:28 | −0.10 | −0.02 | −0.08 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Cody Franson D | 18:56 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.04 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Sam Reinhart C | 21:02 | 1 | −0.25 | −0.03 | −0.23 | −0.02 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.03 | |
| Marcus Foligno L | 14:57 | −0.26 | +0.01 | −0.10 | −0.02 | +0.02 | −0.17 | +0.00 | ||
| Rasmus Ristolainen D | 23:17 | 1 | −0.27 | −0.03 | −0.24 | −0.01 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 | |
| Nicolas Deslauriers L | 11:24 | −0.30 | −0.07 | −0.21 | −0.01 | −0.00 | +0.00 | +0.00 | ||
| Tyler Ennis R | 17:37 | −0.35 | −0.07 | −0.29 | −0.00 | +0.01 | +0.00 | +0.00 |
| Goalie | TOI | GSAx (net goals) |
|---|---|---|
| Robin Lehner G | 57:56 | −1.97 |
Net goals for one game are noisy: a single goal against on the ice or a lucky finish moves them a lot. See the card guide and Net Goals 101 for how they are built.